Quan niệm kinh tế Mỹ - Nhật Bản 1931-1941

^'<br /> QIJAN HE HINH TE MY-l^IHAT BAN<br /> 1931-1941<br /> <br /> TRAN T H I £ N THANH*<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> thfii khac trong mdi quan hf gifla hai qudc<br /> G iai doan 1931-1941 chflng kidn sfl<br /> thay ddi tinh chfi't trong quan hf<br /> My-Nhfit Ban tfl eanh tranh sang chien<br /> gia ddi difn vdi nhau qua dai dfldng rdng<br /> nhfi't the gidi nfiy.<br /> tranh. Trong sud't nhiing nfim 1930, mfic Vifc pban tfch cac sd lifu kinh te se cho<br /> dfl cflng cd tham vgng ddi vdi Viin Ddng- chflng ta thfi'y ro dilu dd (Xem bang 1).<br /> Thfii Binh Dfldng, nhflng My vfi Nhfit Ban Bang 1 eho thfi'y, gifi trj xufi't-nhfip khiu<br /> theo dudi nhiing mye tieu cy t h l khdng tfl nfim 1931-1940 gifla My vfi chau A xep<br /> gid'ng nhau, thfim chi trfii ngfldc nhau. thfl 3 chi sau chau Au vfi Bic My. Trong<br /> Trong khi Nhfit Ban mud'n Washington dd, can can thfldng mai My - Nhfit chiem<br /> chfi'p nhfin ti If ngang bang vl lflc Mgng tdi khoang 45% gia tri xufi't khiu vfi 21,9%<br /> hai quan, md rgng anh hfldng d Trung Qud'c gifi trj nhfip khau vdi tofin chau A. Gia tri<br /> vfi Ddng Nam A, ddng thdi ngan can sfl iing thfldng mai vdi Nhfit Ban cung gfi'p tren 4<br /> bd cfla My ddi vdi eac cfldng qud'c cbau Au, lin vl xufi't k h i u vfi tren 2 l i n vl nhfip<br /> thi My lai mud'n duy tri flu the vd hai qufin khiu so vdi Trung Qudc. Ti If nfiy cflng ldn<br /> vdi Nhfit Ban, thflc hifn chinh sach "md hdn nhidu l i n so vdi eac qud'c gia, viing dfi't<br /> cfla" d Trung Qud'c vfi ngfin chfin qua trinh khae d chau A. Ngofii ra, gifi tri thfldng mai<br /> banh trfldng cua Nhfit bfing ehinh saeh qua eanh va chuyen tfiu eua Nhfit Ban qua<br /> "khdng tham chidn". Vifc thye hifn nhiing Ifinh thd My tfl 1933-1940 cung chidm phin<br /> mye tieu trai ngflge dd da nudi dfldng tinh ldn nhfi't so vdi tofin chau A (Bang 2).<br /> trang xung dot trong quan hf My - Nhfit<br /> Ban vfi cudl cflng kdt thflc bfing mdt eudc Cac so' Uf u tren eho thfi'y, trong khi tinh<br /> chidn tranh. trang xung dot ngfiy cfing gia tfing trong<br /> quan hf an ninh-cMnh trj gifla My vfi Nhfit<br /> Song, trong khi tfnh chfi't ddi diu vfi Ban, quan hf thfldng mai song phfldng vfin<br /> xung dot ngfiy cfing gia tfing trong quan hf tiep tyc dflge duy tri, thfim ehi gia tfing<br /> an nmh-cMnb trj My-Nhfit Ban tM quan trong nhidu nfim dfic bift lfi tfl 1931-1937,<br /> hf kinh te lai cbo chflng ta thfi'y mdt sic hofic giam khdng dfing ke tfl 1938-1940.<br /> <br /> <br /> *TS. Khoa Ljch sfl - Trfldng Dai hgc KHXH&NV - DHQG HN<br /> Quan h^ hinh te my-Rhat Bin... 35<br /> <br /> <br /> Bang 1: Xuat (gdm ca tai xuat) • nhap khau hang hoa giiifa My (gdm cac bang luc<br /> dia My, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico va tir 1-1-1935 den 31-12-1939 la<br /> Virgin Island) v6i cac chau luc, qudc gia tieu bieu tU 1931<br /> <br /> Dcfn vi: 1.000 USD<br /> C h a u l^c/<br /> Quo'c gia Xua't k h a u (gom ca t a i xua't)/nh|lp khau<br /> tieu bieu<br /> 1931-1936<br /> Trung binh 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940<br /> m o i nfim<br /> Tong 2.025.196/ 2.456.978/ 3.349.167/ 3.094.440/ 3.177.176/ 4.021.146/<br /> 1.713.102 2.422.592 3.083.668 1.960.428 2.318.081 2.626.378<br /> Bic My 462.806/ 616.711/ 840.126/ 739.994/ 802.197/ 1.085.888/<br /> 413.421 618.580 890.476 490.228 580.629 693.408<br /> Nam My 141.074/ 204.222/ 318.354/ 299.714/ 329.127/ 435/584/<br /> 244.160 291.505 422.026 262.613 317.267 395.105<br /> Chau Au 960.158/ 1.042.804/ 1.359.610/ 1.352.943/ 1.289.753/ 1.645.428/<br /> 518.313 717.544 843.329 567.226 617.166 390.161<br /> Chau A 349.911/ 398.885/ 579.971/ 516.777/ 561.572/ 619.210/<br /> 490.909 707.728 967.261 589.503 699.582 980.869<br /> N h p Ban 169.567/ 204.348/ 288.558/ 239.662/ 232.184/ 227.220/<br /> 148.186 171.744 204.201 126.762 161.212 158.376<br /> Trung Quoc 62.571/ 46.819/ 49.703/ 34.719/ 55.614/ 77.968/<br /> 47.775 74.232 103.622 47.189 61.831 93.002<br /> Philippines 47.680/ 60.350/ 85.032/ 86.464/ 99.939/ 93.315/<br /> 89.174 101.679 126.061 94.244 91.927 89.671<br /> Quan Dong 2.836/ 3.542/ 16.088/ 17.005/ 15.751/ 9.857/<br /> (Kwantung) 2.073 3.988 3.708 1.626 1.546 2.096<br /> Hong Kong 10.154/ 8.550/ 20.266/ 21.288/ 18.121/ 17.387/<br /> 5.602 8.541 9.213 3.367 3.570 3.193<br /> An Dp • 33.441/ 42.811/ 68.428/<br /> 28.067/ 26.807/ 43.747/ 58.354 66.401 102.204<br /> Mien Di$n 50.509 70.340 95.942 2.322/ 4.065/ 8.050/<br /> 224 426 1.857<br /> Dong Dudng 1.221/ 3.120/ 2.532/ 3.128/ 8.246/ 6.019/<br /> 754 4.187 6.577 7.137 9.611 13.080<br /> Chau Dai 48.868/ 79.154/ 98.948/ 93.662/ 79.505/ 94.483/<br /> dudng 16.209 35.865 68.428 16.189 26.705 34.673<br /> Chau Phi 62.377/ 114.202/ 152.158/ 118.350/ 115.023/ 160.609/<br /> 32.088 51.398 92.148 54.671 76.732 131.162<br /> <br /> Ngudn: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the US 1941<br /> 36 R g h i ^ cflu Lich siSr. s g 5.2010<br /> <br /> <br /> Bang 2: Thfldng m^i qua canh va chuydn tau cua My (gdm cac bang lyc dja My, Alaska,<br /> Hawaii, Puerto Rico vfi tfl 1-1-1935 den 31-12-1939 Ifi Virgin Island) ttt 1933-1940<br /> <br /> Ban vi: 1.000 USD<br /> <br /> <br /> N&m C h a u l^c vk c&c q u o c gia ti§u b i e u<br /> <br /> Chuyen Nh^n Chuyen Nh^tif Chuydn Nh|intvr Chuydn<br /> <br /> tiJf d^n tvr den den den<br /> <br /> B i c My N a m My C h a u Au C h a u Dai di^ofng<br /> <br /> Tong Tong Tong Tong<br /> <br /> 1933 90.060 35.204 10.359 11.969 25.261 78.266 2.216 2.880<br /> <br /> 1934 108.293 42.888 12.227 17.048 27.182 83.730 2.722 6.357<br /> <br /> 1935 101.472 47.994 14.802 19.479 27.823 61.702 1.285 10.737<br /> <br /> 1936 111.432 44.134 14.733 20.919 30.771 75.165 1.840 9.444<br /> <br /> 1937 121.161 60.888 23.402 31.370 41.970 68.162 1.959 15.110<br /> <br /> 1938 91.672 43.633 9.974 22.259 30.198 50.394 1.391 10.868<br /> <br /> 1939 117.112 58.304 15.997 34.919 39.898 64.610 1.950 10.381<br /> <br /> 1940 172.147 70.053 51.021 38.685 38.233 119.759 3.607 7.788<br /> <br /> Chau Phi Chau A<br /> <br /> Tong To'ng Nh^t Ban<br /> <br /> 1933 1.108 3.484 7.223 4.425 2.493 1.570<br /> <br /> 1934 639 4.496 12.710 9.454 4.454 5.334<br /> <br /> 1935 452 4.516 12.717 14.123 4.842 9.837<br /> <br /> 1936 373 5.579 9.229 13.137 3.681 9.266<br /> <br /> 1937 853 8.124 13.808 19.590 6.882 14.062<br /> <br /> 1938 561 4.641 8.636 10.638 3.058 5.035<br /> <br /> 1939 1.260 6.775 10.451 11.679 4.591 5.775<br /> <br /> 1940 2.786 23.822 16.057 23.745 4.670 12.163<br /> <br /> Ngu6n: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the US 1941<br /> Tuy nhien, gia tri xufi't k h i u cac mfit gifi'y, phan bon,... cho Nhfit Ban. Td lya vfi<br /> hfing tfl My sang Nhfit vfi ngflge lai c6 sy bong lfi nhiJtng mfit hfing the manh eua moi<br /> thay ddi dang ke. Trfldc day, vfio cudi thd ky nfldc vfi lfi mgt trong nhiing tac n h a n hfldng<br /> XIX d i u the ky XX, Nhfit Ban lfi nfldc cung ndn kinh te cua ca My, Nhfit Ban tham gia<br /> cfi'p lya, ehe vfi mgt sd^ mat hang sd cfi'p ldn tich eye vfio nen thfldng mai the gidi, md<br /> nhfi't cfla My. Ngflge lai. My cflng la ngudn rgng thj trfldng xufi't-nhfip k h i u eac san<br /> cung cfi'p chu yeu ve bong, d i u mo, gd, bgt p h i m thfldng mai. Song tfl d i u nhiing nfim<br /> Quan h^ hinh tef my-Hhat Bin... 37<br /> <br /> <br /> Bang 3: Nh|ip khau slit ph^ lieu cua Nhat B ^ tii 1929-1938<br /> Dctn vi: tan<br /> Niidc/ 1929-1932 1929- 1933-1936 1933- 1937 1937 1938 1938<br /> vimg (TB h&ng 1932 (TB hang 1936 (%) (%)<br /> nam) (%) nam) (%)<br /> Man Chau 9.600 2,1% 13.500 1% 43.900 1,8% 47.200 3,5%<br /> Trung Quoc 13.900 3% 17.200 1,2% 10.700 0,4% 30.200 2,2%<br /> Thupe dja 111.800 24,4% 132.800 9,5% 200.100 8,3% 81.700 6%<br /> cua Anh<br /> Dong An 25.200 5,5% 40.600 2,9% 97.400 4% 66.700 4,9%<br /> thugc Hk<br /> Lan<br /> Uf 163.500 35,7% 942.100 67,2% 1.777.000 73,4% 1.006.700 74,1%<br /> Australia 11.600 2,5% 27.200 3,4% 84.000 3,5% 30.400 2,2%<br /> Cac nu6c 122.400 26,7% 210.200 15% 206.700 8,5% 95.000 7,1%<br /> khac khac<br /> Tdng 467.900 100% 1.403.800 100% 2.419.800 100% 1.357.900 100%<br /> Ngu6n: Mantetsu, Tokyo shia, chosashitsu, Nichi-Bei tsuslio Icokai joyalcu tiaici no eilcyo narabini sonotaisaku (Tokyo, 1939).<br /> DSn theo Michael A. Bamhart, Japan prepares for total war, Ttie search for economic security, 1919-1941, Cornell<br /> University Press, Ithaca and London, 1987, tr. 145<br /> <br /> Bang 4: Nhap khau thep cua Nhat Ban trong cac nfim 1933,1937<br /> Dcfn vi: tdn<br /> <br /> Nfldc 1933 1937<br /> My Tren 1.000.000 tfi'n th6p phe lieu 990.000 ta'n th^p thoi<br /> Ngudn: Tdng hop tCf Eliot Janeway, Japanese purcliases in ttie American Economy, Far Eastern Survey, Vol 7, No 11<br /> (Jan., 1,1938), tr.l24.<br /> <br /> Bang 5: Nhap khau gang cua Nhat Ban tii 1936-1937<br /> Dan vi: tdn<br /> <br /> Nfldc 1936 (ca nfim) 1937 (6 thang dau nfim)<br /> Man Chau Ly 271.225 120.570<br /> Anh 2.263 4.642<br /> My 573 148.741<br /> An Do thugc Anh 375.323 171.660<br /> Cac nfldc khac 322.585 69.548<br /> Tdng 971.969 515.771<br /> Ngu6n: Mantetsu, Tokyo shia, chosashitsu, Shino jihen stiori narabini Ostiu senso boppatsu ni tomonau senji Iceizai taisalcu<br /> (Tokyo, 1939). D5n theo Michael A. Bamhart, Japan prepares for total war, The search for economic security. 1919-1941,<br /> Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London, 1987, tr. 150.<br /> <br /> '/•> ..:::•: mw,,.<br /> 2S Rghien cuu Lich sit. s6 5.2010<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Bang 6: Xuat khau dau mo tiJf My sang Nh^t Ban trong cac nfim 1936 va 1937<br /> <br /> Dem vi: thiing<br /> <br /> Nam 1936 1937 1937<br /> (9 thang dau nfim) (9 thang dau nfim) (fldc tinh ca nfim)<br /> So thung 16.574.000 23.102.000 30.000.000<br /> Ngofii ra My con xua't sang Man<br /> Chau Ly 2.250.000 thung<br /> Ngu6n: Tdng bap tir Eliot Janeway, Japanese purchases in the American Economy, Far Eastern Survey, Vol 7,<br /> No 11 (Jan., 1,1938), tr.l25, 126.<br /> <br /> Bang 7: Xuat khau may moc cua My nfim 1937<br /> <br /> Dcfn vi: l.OOOUSD<br /> <br /> Nfldc 1937<br /> <br /> Nhfit Ban Khoang 9.000<br /> Anh 11.300<br /> Cac nfldc khac 19.700<br /> T o n g cong 40.(HX)<br /> Ngu6n: T6ng hop tiJ Eliot Janeway, Japanese purchases in the American Economy, Far Eastern Survey, Vol 7,<br /> No 11 (Jan., 1,1938), tr. 127.<br /> 30 cfla t h d k y XX, Nhfit Ban da giam nhfip bflng nd chidn t r a n h ci My nhfl da tflng xay<br /> k h i u bong vfi cfic vfit lieu khac nhfl gd, bgt ra nfim 1916-1917 khong? Thff hai, viec<br /> gifi'y (vo'n chiem ti trgng ldn nhfi't trong nhfip khfiu nhflng mfit hfing nfiy co dong<br /> tdng gifi tri xufi't k h i u cfla My sang Nhfit vai tro thidt yeu trong Iflgng tieu t h y th^p,<br /> trfldc khflng hoang) de tfip t r u n g ngudn vo'n d i u vfi eae nguyen vfit lieu quan trgng khae<br /> CO b a n mua nguyen lieu tho va eac t r a n g ddi vdi san xufi't eong nghiep vfi chien tranh<br /> thidt bj phye vy cong nghiep chien tranh. cfla Nhfit Ban h a y khong?<br /> Thay vi nhfip k h i u nhidu bong, go vfi p h a n<br /> De t r a loi nhflng eau hoi nfiy, chflng ta<br /> bon nhfl trfldc day, Nhfit tfing cflcing m u a<br /> phai cfin cfl vfio thyc t r a n g kinh te vfi quan<br /> th6p, sfit, gang, d i u md, vfi may moc...<br /> diem cua gidi e l m quyen My vfi Nhfit Ban<br /> (Bang 3, 4, 5, 6 vfi 7).<br /> ve eac vfi'n de c6 lien quan.<br /> Cau hdi dfit r a b day lfi: Thff nhdt, tai Vd phia Nhfit Ban, tfl kinh nghiem<br /> sao khi tinh chfi't xung dot ngfiy cfing gia trong qua khfl vfi nhiing bfii hge ve eae eugc<br /> tfing trong quan he an ninh-quan sy gifla xung dot gifla eae cflcing qudc tren the gidi,<br /> My va Nhfit Ban, My vfin tiep tyc xufi't ehinh gidi Nhfit Ban nhfin thflc ro rfing<br /> sang Nhfit eac nguyen vfit lieu co y nghia rfing ket qua cfla cae cugc ehien t r a n h<br /> ehien Iflgc eho chidn tranh. Viec xufi't k h i u trong tfldng lai khong ehi dfldc djnh doat<br /> do tac dgng nhfl the nao den nen eong bfing sung dan mfi con b i n g k h a nfing huy<br /> nghiep My va co gop p h i n thflc d i y sy dgng tfi't ca cac ngudn lflc cfla dfi't nfldc.<br /> Quan he hinh t& STy-Rhat BJbi. 39<br /> <br /> Neu Nhfit khong xay dflng dflge mgt nen quan sfl vfi dan sfl dfla ra ke hoach diu<br /> cong nghiep Men dai sfin sang dap flng mgi tien ve huy dgng tofin dign cho chidn tranh<br /> yeu clu khi cin thiet thi mgi no lflc khae tdng lflc vfi dfl djnh hofin thign ke hoach<br /> cung se thfinh vo nghia. Mgt qudc gia nfiy vfio thang 9-1932. Trong dieu kien<br /> khong c6 kha nfing tfl dap flng cac nhu clu Nhfit thieu b l u bet cac nguyen vfit ligu<br /> trong thcli chidn se bj cac nfldc khac gfiy sflc thidt yeu cho mgt cugc chien tranh hien<br /> 6p ve kinh te, do d6 vfla khong dam bao dai, giai phfip tfi't yeu lfi phai chiem cfic<br /> dflge an ninh vfla khong co ehu quyen thye viing lanh thd c6 vj tri chidn Iflgc, gifiu tfii<br /> sfl. nguyen thien nhien vfi nhfip khiu nguygn<br /> Ngay tfl nfim 1915, dfla tren ket qua vfit lieu. Tren thflc te, cflng vdi viec tfing<br /> didu tra tinh binh Nhfit Ban, mien Bfic vfi cfldng xfim Iflgc Trung Quoc vfi Dong Nam<br /> Trung Trung Qudc, nghien cflu ky tae A, Nhfit Ban con diy manh nhfip khiu<br /> phim viet vd nhflng no lflc cfla Dflc nhim nhflng nguyen lieu cin thiet eho sfl phfit<br /> xay dflng nen kinh te tfl chfl trong tbdi trien eong nghigp, dfic bi$t la eong ngbiep<br /> chien, dai ta Koiso Kuniaki da de xufi't mgt qufin sfl. Ro rfing lfi, so vdi vi$c khai thfic<br /> ke hoach vdi hai ngi dung ehinh: Thff nhdt, tfii nguyen cl eac vflng lanh tho do Nhfit<br /> Koiso cho rfing ea dao qudc Nhfit Ban hay chiem dong, giai phap nhfip khfiu chi mang<br /> cfic thugc dia cua Nhfit gdm Dfii Loan, tinh tam thcli, song day vin luon lfi ngudn<br /> Trieu Tien, Nam Sakhalin deu khong eung bd sung nguyen lieu quan trgng cho Nhfit<br /> cfi'p du cae ngudn lyc eho viSc tien hfinh Ban. Sd lieu thdng kg cho thfi'y, tuy san<br /> mgt cugc ehien tranh hi6n dai. Vi vfiy, vfi'n Ifldng nguyen nhign ligu do Nhfit khai thac<br /> dd cfi'p bach dfit ra ddi vdi Nhfit Ban lfi phai cl eac thugc dja (dfic biet lfi diu mo) kha ldn<br /> chiem dflge nhflng Ifinb thd gifiu co hdn, vi nhflng vfin khong dap flng dfl yeu clu cfla<br /> dy Trung Qudc. Thff hai, neu khong c6 mgt qufin dgi, nhfi't lfi hai quan. Day cung lfi ly<br /> ndn kinh td ngi dja dflge td ehflc tot, eo the do khien Nhfit de ra chfldng trinh diy<br /> huy dgng nhanh eh6ng vfi hieu qua cho tham vgng chiet xufi't diu tong bgp tfl da<br /> chidn tranh thi viec bd sung them nhieu phidn hofic than da song san Ifldng thflc te<br /> ngudn lflc ben ngofii eung khong co gia tri. luon b mflc rfi't thfi'p so vdi mye tigu de ra<br /> Theo Koiso, giai phfip lfi phai xay dflng mgt (Xem bang 8).<br /> ke hoach huy dgng tofin dien mgi ngudn lflc Hdn nfla, trong qua trinh bfinh trfldng<br /> (1). Ke hoach nay dflge Bg Qudc phong ung lanh thd vfi xay dflng nen kinh te tfl chu,<br /> hg. Nhfit vfi'p phai lflc can rfi't ldn tfl Lign Xo.<br /> Tfl d6 den nfim 1931, Nhfit Ban da ban Trong eugc hgp gifla cac tfldng linh quan<br /> hfinh mgt sd^ dao lufit vfi thfinh Ifip nhieu cd dgi cao cfi'p td chfle thang 6-1933 dfldi sy<br /> quan de thyc hjen kd hoach nfiy nhfl Lufit ehu toa eua Bg trfldng Qude phdng Araki<br /> eung cfi'p dan dflge (1917), Cue Quan gidi Sadao, tfi't ca cac thfinh vign tham dfl deu<br /> (1918), Ban Danh gia sflc manh qudc gia nhfi't tri cho ring Lign Xo lfi mdi de dga ldn<br /> (1920), Sfic Ignh ve nghiem cflu dan dflge nhfi't ddi vdi an ninh Nhfit Ban. Thfing 9-<br /> (1920), Cyc Trang bi (1924) thugc Bg Qudc 1933, Araki de trinh Ign ngi cac kd hoach<br /> phong, Cyc Tfii nguyen thugc Ngi cac cung co' vj tri cfla Nhfit Ban ea trong vfi<br /> (1927). Tai Hgi nghj l i n thfl 2 cua Cyc Tfii ngofii nfldc. Xufi't phat tfl quan diem cho<br /> nguyen cae nhfi hoach djnh ehinh sach ring Nhfit se phai ddi mfit vdi eugc khflng<br /> 40 Rghien curu Ljch sir, sd 5.2Q1Q<br /> <br /> <br /> Bang 8: Muc tieu va san Ifl^tag dau tdng hdp cua Nhat Ban tii 1937-1941<br /> B(fn vi: trieu lit<br /> Nfim Muc tieu San Ifldng thflc te<br /> 1937 87 5<br /> 1938 446 11<br /> 1939 489 21<br /> 1940 930 24<br /> 1941 1243 194<br /> Ngu6n: Bamhart, M.A (1987), Japan prepares for total war- The search for economic security, 1919-1941, Cornell<br /> University Press, Ithaca and London, tr. 146.<br /> <br /> hoang quo'c te vfio nam 1936, Araki dfla ra thdi bing each tim kiem giai phap hda binh<br /> ke hoach: b trong nfldc, Nhfit Ban phai tien (hofic it nhfi't lfi tranh xung dot tryc tiep)<br /> hfinh cai each giao dye vfi tfl tfldng de nang vdi cac cfldng qudc khac dfic bigt la My de<br /> cao tinh t h i n dan chflng, trg gia eho nong tfing cfldng nhfip k h i u nguyen lieu va may<br /> dan vfi dam bao ngudn cung cfi'p Ifldng thyc mdc. Song trong quan hg vdi My, gidi quan<br /> thyc phim dfl thfla ngi dja ddng thdi tai vu sfl Nhfit Ban ed hai y kien khac nhau.<br /> trang vfi trign khai chfldng trinh tfing Trong nghidn cflu diu tien eua Ban Lanh<br /> cfldng dfic biet la ve nhien Ueu de giflp de dao ehien tranh vfio mfla hd nfim 1936, phe<br /> chd Nhfit Ban cbd'ng chgi vdi cugc khflng lye quan eho ring duy tri moi quan hg tdt<br /> hoang nfim 1936. O ngoai nfldc, Nhfit Ban dep vdi My lfi khdng the thieu de ddi phd<br /> ein tfing cfldng kha nfing phdng thu Man vdi ke thfl nguy hiem nhfi't cua lyc quan lfi<br /> Chau Ly, loai Lign Xo ra khoi eae moi quan Lign Xd. Trong khi dd, hai quan Nhfit lai<br /> he ddng minh vdi Nhfit, huge Trung Quo'c coi My lfi mdi de doa ldn nhfi't trgn bien vfi<br /> phai cam ke't duy tri quan he hflu hao vdi de xufi't ke hoach tfi'n cdng ca My vfi Lign<br /> Nhfit. Song neu chidn tranh xay ra vdi Lign Xd, trong dd lyc quan tfi'n edng Lidn Xd, hai<br /> Xd, Nhfit Ban se phai tao ra mgt nfldc dem quan tfi'n edng My. Song de xufi't cua hai<br /> d midn Bfic Trung Qud'c de bao ve sfldn quan hoc Id mdt nghich ly, dd lfi trong khi<br /> phia Bfic (2). Moi de dga tfl Lign Xd cfing hai quan Nhfit tfi'n edng chien ham My thi<br /> ldn hdn khi ddn nfim 1936 lyc Iflgng quan Nhfit vfin se phai nhfip bdng cfla My, se,<br /> sy eua Lien Xo b Vien Dong da tfing tfl 4 sfl det sdi bdng vfi ban thfinh phim sang thi<br /> doan dflge trang bj sflng trfldng (1932) Ign trfldng ehinh lfi My, phai nhfip tfl My cac<br /> 14 sfl dofin vdi gin 1.000 xe tfing vfi nhieu loai thdp, hdp kim, may mdc vfi cac thiet bj<br /> may bay chien dfi'u cdn dgi quan Quan phflc tap dfic biet cin thiet cho viec tien<br /> Ddng cfla Nhfit ehi cd 3 sfl dofin vdi eac hfinh chien tranh. Dieu dd cho thfi'y vfio<br /> trang thidt bj cu ky. thdi diem nfiy, phat ddng chien tranh vdi<br /> My lfi giai phap thidu sang sudt. Hdn nfla,<br /> Trong bdl eanh Nhfit Ban dang tfing theo phan tich eua lye quan, Nhfit Ban cin<br /> cfldng chidn tranh trdn lyc dja chau A, duy tri hofi binh trong it nhfi't 5 nfim dd md<br /> ngudn eung cfi'p nguyen vfit lieu tfl thugc rgng san xufi't, tfing cfldng kha nfing dap<br /> dja khdng du dap flng nhu clu eua quan ling cho qufin ddi (3).<br /> dgi vfi cdng nghigp quan sy, phai ddi dign<br /> vdi de doa sat sfldn tfl phia Lien Xd, Nhfit Ve phia My, ngay tfl nfim 1927, Stanley<br /> phai tim each thoat khoi tinh trang hien Hornbeek, chuydn gia cua chinh phu My vl<br /> Quan h^ hinh tg aTy-Rhat Bin.. 41<br /> <br /> <br /> eac vfi'n dd Vien Ddng, da ndu quan diem bfi't cfl chfldng trinh diy tham vgng nfio ke<br /> cho ring neu boat ddng cua Qud'c dan Dang ca trong nfldc hay b nxidc ngofii vfi se diu<br /> d Trung Qudc can trd diu tfl nfldc ngofii vfi hfing trfldc bfi't cfl hfinh dgng cflng rfin nfio<br /> lfim td'e do tfing trfldng kinh te cfla Nhfit cfla My.<br /> chfim lai, nfldc nfiy se huge phai hfldng sfl<br /> Hdn nfla, vdi nhieu lgi the nhfl dign<br /> phat tridn kinh td vfio lyc dja chau A dfl<br /> ticb lanh thd, sfl phong phfl vd tfii nguygn<br /> cai gia phai tra lfi sfl hon loan ehinh trj b<br /> thign nhign, dan cfl... tfl cud'i the ky XIX,<br /> Trung Qud'c vfi sfl khac biet ehinh tri sau<br /> My dfi xay dyng dflge ndn td tfl chu, lfi<br /> sfic vdi My vi an ninh cfla Nhfit phy thudc<br /> nfldc dfin d i u ve san Iflgng cdng nghigp vfi<br /> vfio dieu dd. Thang 6-1931, trgn cfldng vj<br /> gia trj xufi't k h i u nhieu mfit hfing quan<br /> Trfldng ban Viin Ddng (thudc Bd Ngoai<br /> trgng. Trgn cd sd kinh td dd, quan didm<br /> giao), Hornbeek dfic bigt chfl y tdi sfl<br /> cfla ngfldi My ve eae yeu td ed t i m quan<br /> ehuin bj huy ddng cac ngudn lflc cho cdng<br /> trgng dfic bigt dd'i vdi an ninh qudc gia<br /> nghigp cua Cyc Tfii nguygn Nhfit Ban vfi<br /> khae bigt dang ke vdi ngfldi Nhfit Ban.<br /> nghi ngd r i n g Nhfit cd the vfldt qua sfl<br /> Sy khac bigt ve quan diem dd cfing gia<br /> thieu hyt tfii nguygn dd tien hfinh mdt ke<br /> tfing sau Chien tranh the gidi thfl Nhfi't.<br /> hoach chi tiet vfi hieu qua. Tuy nhign, khi<br /> Trong khi chinh gidi Nhfit Ban nd lflc ca<br /> sfl kien Man Chau xay ra, ca Hornbeek,<br /> vd kinh te vfi quan sy de Dd che Nhfit<br /> Ngoai trfldng My Stimson vfi cac nhan<br /> khdng Ifip lai so' phfin nhfl nfldc Dflc thi<br /> vien Bg Ngoai giao chju trach nhiem phan<br /> gidi lanh dao My cho r i n g an ninh qude<br /> tich chinh sach dd'i ngoai cfla Nhfit deu<br /> gia My phy thugc vfio sfl tai Ifip trfit tfl<br /> khdng thfit sfl tin vfio y djnh xay dyng ndn<br /> tofin clu dfla tren cfic nguydn tfic cfla<br /> kinh te tfl chfl cfla ehinh phu Nhfit. Ly do<br /> lufit phap qud'c te, theo do moi qude gia ed<br /> lfi Nhfit thidu h i u het cae nguygn ligu<br /> quyen dgc Ifip vfi tfl do ve ehinh trj, ed ed<br /> ehien Ifldc de cd the bien y djnh dd thfinh<br /> hdi binh ding ve thfldng mai vdi cae nfldc<br /> sfl thyc. Cud'i nfim 1933, phin ldn ngfldi<br /> khac. Day cung lfi mdt trong nhflng ndi<br /> My, trong dd cd Stanley Hornbeek, Joseph<br /> dung eua Chinh sach Md cfla dflge My ap<br /> Grew- Tan Dai sfl My tai Nhfit Ban vfin<br /> dyng dd'i vdi cfic nfldc Ddng A tfl sau sfl<br /> tin ring vi^e Nhfit chiem Mfin Chau lfi vi<br /> kign Mfin Chau den trfldc cugc tfi'n edng<br /> danh dy cua Lyc quan Nhfit chfl khdng<br /> cfla Nhfit tai Tran Chau cang vfi eua<br /> phai vi sy sdng edn cua ke hoach xay dflng<br /> Higp fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hang hai ky<br /> xay dflng ndn kinh te ty chfl. Nhflng chinh<br /> gifla My vfi Nhfit Ban trong eae nfim 1894<br /> khach nfiy cho r i n g sdm hay mugn Lye<br /> vfi 1911.<br /> quan Nhfit se nhfin thfi'y vige phat trien<br /> Mfin Chau tidu tdn cua Nhfit nhflng khoan Ngofii ra edn mdt 1^ do nfla gdp p h i n ly<br /> diu tfl rfi't ldn vfi do dd huge phai dflng giai tai sao My vfin duy tri quan he budn<br /> vige xam chidm. Hg qua lfi, Lyc quan se bj ban vdi Nhfit trong khi quan he an ninh-<br /> mfi't danh dfl vfi gidi chfle dan sy dn hda quan sfl gifla hai nfldc ngfiy cfing cfing<br /> vdn ung hd quan hg chfit che vdi phfldng thing dd lfi hieu lflc cua Higp fldc Thfldng<br /> Tay se trd lai nfim quydn (4). Tfldng tfl mai vfi Hfing hai My-Nhfit ky thang 2-<br /> nhfl vfiy, Tdng thdng Roosevelt cung tin 1911. Sau sfl kign Man Chau, Ngoai<br /> tfldng sau sfic r i n g ndn kinh te eua Nhfit trfldng Stimson da phan dd'i dd nghj cua<br /> Ban ye'u, khdng cd kha nfing hofin thfinh mdt sd nghj si My ve cfi'm vfin vu khf ddi<br /> 42 Rghito curu L}ch sit. s6 5.2010<br /> <br /> vdi Nhfit, ddng thdi khdng tan thfinh ldi go cung anh hfldng tdi ngfinh cdng nghigp<br /> kdu ggi t i y chay hfing hoa Nhfit cfla cdng tfldng flng eua My. Thdng thfldng, phin<br /> chflng My vdi ly do vi pham nguyen tfic cd ldn go xufi't k h i u dfldc chuydn chd tdi Viin<br /> hdi ddng deu vd thfldng mai trong Higp Ddng dd phue vu ngfinh cdng nghigp<br /> fldc ky nfim 1911. Thfim chi Stimson cdn dfldng sfit vfi xay dflng, song vfio nfim<br /> ggi mdt ngfldi trong so' hg lfi "ke gia ddi 1937 (nhfi't lfi sau thang 7-1937), vige vfin<br /> dang nguyen rua". Herbert Feis (cd vfi'n chuydn go ddn Viin Ddng (dfic bi$t lfi khu<br /> kinh te cua Bd Ngoai giao), mdt sd quan vyc chien sfl) giam dfing ke tfl 86,35 trigu<br /> chfle Bd Thfldng mai vfi Tfii ehfnh eung •m^ (nfim 1936) xudng cdn 53,02 trigu m^<br /> cho ring viec ap dyng cac bien phap trflng trong tdng san Ifldng khoang 2 ti m^/moi<br /> phat quye't liet dfldi bfi't k^ hinh thflc nfio nfim cua ngfinh cdng nghigp go vflng bd<br /> lfi khdng phfl hgp vfi khdng hgp phap, trfl bien phfa Tay nfldc My. Quy I nfim 1938,<br /> khi Higp fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hfing hai bj con sd nfiy giam xudng chi edn khoang<br /> xda bd. 5,12 trieu m^ ca nfim 1938 lfi 20,6 trigu<br /> m^. Sy giam sut nfiy lfi mdt trong nhflng<br /> Kg't qua lfi, trong nhflng nfim 1931- nhan to' gay nen tinh trang mfi't can ddi<br /> 1939, mac dfl trong ehfnh gidi My ludn trong ngfinh edng nghigp go eua My.<br /> diin ra cude tranh lufin xung quanh vfi'n Nhflng, khac vdi anh hfldng ddi vdi ngfinh<br /> dd My cd ngn ap dyng bign phap trflng bdng cua My, tae ddng cfla Nhfit Ban tdi<br /> phat kinh td vdi Nhfit hay khdng, quan hg ngfinh cdng nghigp go cfla My khdng ro<br /> thfldng mai song phfldng My - Nhfit Ban ndt bing vi mfic dfl ft nhfi't 1/2 Ifldng gd<br /> vfin tiep tyc dfldc duy tri, thfim chi gia nhfip k h i u vfio Nhfit den tfl My nhflng so<br /> tfing trong nhieu nfim. Song, quan hg nfiy vdi cfic nfldc khac Nhfit chfla bao gid lfi<br /> cd nhflng tfic ddng khdng gidng nhau ddi nfldc tigu thy gd ehfnh eua My.<br /> vdi mdi nfldc.<br /> Ve phfa My, vi bong lfi mfit hfing xufi't Trong khi dd, sdt, thep, ddu mo lfi<br /> k h i u quan trgng nhfi't sang Nhfit ddng nhflng mat hfing quan trgng vfi tfing<br /> thdi sfl phat trien ngfinh trdng bdng vfi sd nhanh nhfi't trong tdng gia trj xufi't khfiu<br /> che bdng cung phy thudc vfio xufi't k h i u "mdi' cfla My sang Nhfit. Nhflng xdt ve<br /> hdn bfi't cfl ngfinh nfio khac, ngn viec mfit con sd, sfl gia tfing nfiy anh hfldng<br /> Nhfit (vfi mdt sd nfldc khac) giam nhfip khdng ldn tdi thi trfldng tidu thy nhflng<br /> k h i u mfit hfing nfiy dfi khidn boat ddng san p h i m dd cfla My cung nhfl ddi vdi cfic<br /> xufi't k h i u bdng eua My rdi vfio tinh ngfinh cdng nghigp nfiy d My. Ly do lfi<br /> trang suy thofii trong nhidu nfim. Sfl tuy Iflgng sfit thdp xufi't k h i u sang Nhfit<br /> dinh dd'n trong xufi't k h i u dfin ddn tinh chiem ti trgng ldn nhfi't so vdi cfic qudc<br /> trang dfl thfla bdng d My. Vfio ngfiy 1-8- gia khac nhflng so vdi tdng Iflgng tieu thy<br /> 1938, khi vy bdng mdi bfit diu. My dy sfit thdp My dd vin lfi con sd rfi't nhd. Vf<br /> thfla khoang tfl 12 den 13 tridu kien dy nhfl nfim 1937, Iflgng thdp xufi't k h i u<br /> bdng. R5 rfing lfi, sy suy giam xufi't k h i u sang Nhfit ehi bing khoang 3% tdng<br /> bdng da gay khd khfin ldn cho vide quay Ifldng thdp tidu thy cua My. Lygng d i u<br /> vdng vd'n phye vy diy manh san xufi't md eua My xufi't sang Nhfit vfi Man Chau<br /> trong nhflng vy mfla tiep theo. Tydng tfl Ly nfim 1937 cung chi chiem khoang 1/5<br /> nhfl vfiy, sfl suy giam gia trj xufi't k h i u tdng lygng diu xufi't k h i u cfla My. Dieu<br /> Quan he hinh tg my-Rhat Bin. 43<br /> <br /> dd eho thfi'y, sy gia tfing gia trj xufi't k h i u cdng nghiep nfing dfit ra ydu elu nhfip<br /> sfit, thdp, cao su, d i u md vfi may mdc eua k h i u ddng_ vdi so' Iflgng ldn. Nfim 1939,<br /> My sang Nhfit trong nhflng nfim trfldc Nhfit san xufi't dfldc khoang 90.000 tfi'n,<br /> chien tranh tac ddng khdng ldn tdi boat nhfip k h i u gin 105.000 tfi'n trong dd 93%<br /> ddng cfla cae ngfinh edng nghigp tfldng lfi tfl My.<br /> flng d My. Ndi each khfic, nhu clu ngfiy He qua lfi, trong khi ngfinh cdng nghigp<br /> cfing tfing ve nguyen vfit lieu dflng trong det cfla Nhfit Ban giam d i n sfl phy thudc<br /> eae ngfinh edng nghigp phye vy ehien vfio My vdi tfl each ngudn cung cfi'p<br /> tranh cua Nhfit Ban khdng thflc diy sfl<br /> nguygn lieu thd chu ydu thi cac ngfinh<br /> bflng nd san xufi't cdng nghiep chien<br /> cdng nghigp quan sfl vfi ban quan sfl eua<br /> tranh d My.<br /> Nhfit ngly cfing phu thudc vfio My vi day<br /> Trong khi dd, vdi Nhfit Ban - vd'n ludn la nfldc xufi't k h i u nhieu nhfi't hofic lfi<br /> gfip nhflng khd khfin cd hflu ve nguydn mdt trong nhflng nfldc xufi't k h i u nhieu<br /> lieu cho sfl phat trien cdng nghigp, sy gia nhfi't eae loai nguyen ligu thd vfi may mdc<br /> tfing gia tri nhfip k h i u nhflng nguygn vfit cho Nhfit Ban. Vi vfiy, mdt lenh cfi'm xufi't<br /> lieu ndi tren ro rfing ddng vai trd vd cflng khfiu cac mat hfing nfiy tfl phfa My cung<br /> quan trgng trong vide md rdng cae ngfinh ddng nghia vdi vige nhieu ngfinh edng<br /> edng nghigp nfing thugc the hg thfl hai nghigp quan trgng cfla Nhfit Ban bj dinh<br /> nhfl thdp, didn may, d i u md, may mdc ndi trg. Sy phy thudc cfla Nhfit dd'i vdi d i u<br /> chung. Nfim 1938, Nhfit nhfip cua My trdn<br /> md cua My thfim chf cdn nfing ne hdn.<br /> 1.000.000 tfi'n sfit phe ligu, chidm tdi<br /> Nhin ehung. My eung cfi'p tdi 80% nhu<br /> 74,1% Iflgng sfit nhfip k h i u cua Nhfit. Vi<br /> clu diu md cfla Nhfit, trong dd mdt sd'<br /> vfiy, le tfi't nhidn neu My ngflng xufi't k h i u<br /> san phim dfic biet nhfl xfing lfi tren 90%.<br /> sfit phe lieu, san Iflgng thdp cfla Nhfit se<br /> Dieu nfiy cung gdp p h i n giai thich tai sao<br /> giam tfldng flng khoang trdn 1.000.000<br /> Nhfit Ban cd' gfing khdng diy tinh trang<br /> tfi'n vfi kdo theo dd lfi cac tac ddng tidu cflc<br /> dd'i vdi ca hai linh vyc quan sy vfi dan sfl. xung dot den mflc bflng nd chidn tranh<br /> Tfldng tfl nhfl vfiy, nfim 1938, My lfi nfldc gifla hai nfldc ddng thdi tfch eye diy<br /> xufi't k h i u may mdc hfing diu sang Nhfit manh edng eudc Bfic tien vfio lyc dja<br /> Ban, vdi ti Id trgn 60%. Cd mgt thye td lfi Trung Hoa vfi Nam tien xudng khu vyc<br /> sd Ifldng may mdc do Nhfit san xufi't tfing Ddng Nam A.<br /> nhanh chdng nhflng vfin khdng dap flng Tuy nhidn, hfinh dgng theo hydng thfl<br /> du ydu elu cho vige tid'n hfinh cugc chien hai cfla Nhfit Ban khien xung dot quyen<br /> tranh tai Trung Qud'c vfi chay dua vu lgi gifla Nhfit vfi My ngfiy cfing gia tfing.<br /> trang ndi ehung. Vi vfiy, Nhfit Ban cflng Thfing 7-1939, Ngoai trfldng My Hull<br /> ngfiy cfing phy thudc vfio My ve ngudn thdng bao vdi Dai sfl Nhfit d Washington<br /> eung cfi'p mfiy mdc. Trong khi dd, ddng dd Hironouchi ve xofi bd Hi$p fldc Thfldng<br /> vd'n lfi mdt trong nhflng san phim mfi mai vfi Hfing hai ky nfim 1911 vfi gia ban<br /> Nhfit khdng nhflng san xufi't dap flng du 6 thang ke tfl ngfiy thdng bao. Thang 1-<br /> nhu clu trong nfldc mfi cdn xufi't khiu thi 1940, Higp fldc Thfldng mai vfi Hfing hai<br /> tfl gifla nfim 1939 tinh hinh nfiy dfi chfi'm gifla My vfi Nhfit Ban chfnh thflc bj xoa<br /> dflt. Nhu clu sfl dyng ddng dd de lfim vd bd. Hfinh ddng nfiy da md dfldng ve mfit<br /> dan, thiet bj dien tfl vfi md rgng eac ngfinh phap ly cho vide ban hfinh vfi thflc hien<br /> 44 Rghien curu Lich sit. s6 5.2010<br /> <br /> eae bign phap trflng phat kinh te ddi vdi lfi cfi'm vfin tofin dien cfla My da khien<br /> Nhfit Ban. Trong thdi gian sau do, chinh gidi Ifinh dao qufin ddi de che Nhfit nhfin<br /> gidi My lien tyc tranh lufin vd "tinh dflng thfi'y vide tien hfinh cude chien tranh<br /> dfin" cua vide ap dyng nhflng bign phap chd'ng lai Lien Xd vfio nfim 1941 la<br /> nfiy trong khi ehinh My cung bfit d i u khdng kha thi vfi quyet djnh flng hd de<br /> chyong trinh tai vu trang. Ket qua la, xufi't cua hai quan Nhfit ve qua trinh<br /> thfing 10-1940, Tdng thdng Roosevelt ban Nam tien trong dd bao gdm ca viec tfi'n<br /> hfinh lenh cfi'm xufi't k h i u thdp phe ligu cdng My.<br /> vfi sfit ra ngofii Tay bfin clu (trfl Anh) vdi<br /> chfl djnh thflc sfl lfi cfit ngudn eung cfi'p Cude ehien tranh Thai Binh Dfldng suy<br /> san phim rfi't cin thiet cho Nhfit Ban. cho cflng lfi xung dot gifla hai ludng quan<br /> Thang 7-1941, chinh phfl My cfi'm xufi't diem, hai tham vgng ddi vdi khu vflc Ddng<br /> k h i u d i u sang Nhfit. Chfnh quyet djnh A. Vd phia Nhat Ban, dd lfi tham vgng xay<br /> nfiy cua My cflng vdi sy thfi't bai eua cac dflng Khu vflc Thjnh vfldng chung Dai<br /> cude dfim phfin song phfldng n h i m tri Ddng A thfinh mdt ehinh the diy sflc<br /> hofin thdi didm xay ra xung ddng thyc sy manh vfi tfl chu ve kinh te mfi de che Nhfit<br /> gifla My vfi Nhfit da thflc diy Nhfit Ban lfi hat nhan eua Khu vyc dd. Vd phfa My,<br /> bfinh trfldng manh xud'ng tay nam Thai dd lfi no lflc ngfin chfin tham vgng cua<br /> Binh Dfldng- khu vflc sfin cd trfl Iflgng Nhfit vfi cflng vdi dd lfi phue hdi eae<br /> ldn nhieu trong sd' nhflng nguygn ligu cd nguyen tfic eua "Chfnh sach md cfla" trong<br /> t i m quan trgng nhfi't ddi vdi Nhfit. Ben quan he kinh te qudc te nhim dam bao tdi<br /> canh dd, lenh phong tda tfii san vfi sau dd da ldi fch cua My.<br /> <br /> <br /> CHU THICH<br /> (1), (2). Bamhart, M.A (1987), Japan prepares (3), (4). Bamhart, M.A (1987), Japan prepares<br /> for total war - TTie search for economic security, for total war - The search for economic security,<br /> 1919-1941, Cornell University Press, Ithaca and 1919-1941, Cornell University Press, Ithaca and<br /> London, pp. 23, 35. London, pp. 45, 115.<br />