Thesis summary Finance - Banking: Factors affecting the debt structure of a company listed on the stock market of Vietnam

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The overall objective of the thesis is to evaluate the factors affecting the debt maturity structure for the case of companies listed on the Vietnamese stock market. In addition, the idea considers the moderating role of institutional quality, financial development, and long-term financing sources of the economy on the influence of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure for the case of listed companies on the Vietnamese stock market. The thesis provides policy implications for company managers and policymakers.

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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY NGO VAN TOAN FACTORS AFFECTING THE DEBT STRUCTURE OF A COMPANY LISTED ON THE STOCK MARKET OF VIETNAM THESIS SUMMARY Major: Finance - Banking Industry code: 9.34.02.01 Lecturers: 1. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Le Thi Lanh 2. Dr. Le Thi Anh Dao HO CHI MINH CITY, MAY 27, 2022
2 CHAPTER 1: TOPIC OVERVIEW 1.1. The urgency of the topic In addition to the issues often studied by trainees in modern corporate finance, the program is very important to the company's value, especially in the context of emerging and developing economies in Vietnam. In the context of Vietnam's econo- my, where capital markets are inefficient, assuming a perfect capital structure does not exist, debt structure is believed to influence firm value, and the choice of the debt ma- turity structure the proper maturity can affect the value of the company, in addition, this choice also helps the company avoid maturity mismatch by aligning the asset structure with the reduced liabilities. It minimizes the negative impact of the cost of capital, can resolve agency conflicts, and can reliably signal the quality of a firm's as- sets (Cai et al., 2008). To ensure the continuity of this study is a continuation of exist- ing studies (Ngo Van Toan & Pham Thi Thu Hong, 2015; Tran Thi Thuy Linh & Nguyen Thanh Nha, 2017; Ngo Van Toan, 2018; Nguyen Thanh Liem et al., 2018; Le Thi Lanh et al., 2021) on the debt maturity structure in Vietnam, with a focus on find- ing new empirical evidence on the factors affecting the debt maturity structure of listed companies Vietnam stock market. In addition to the researched firm characteristics, attention is focused on exter- nal factors such as the development of the stock market and the development of the banking sector (Nguyen Thanh Liem et al., 2018; Thuy An Chung & Quynh Trang Phan, 2020). However, the empirical results are still not consistent, both in terms of characteristics and external factors (institutional quality and macroeconomics), for several reasons such as market conditions and other factors. Financial intermediaries, legal issues, and representations of these factors for experimental results have not yet been consistent. There is an increasing interest in assessing the influence of factors on the debt maturity structure. However, one activity that has not yet been noticed concerning the study of the debt maturity structure is the moderating role. The moderating role helps to find relationships previously ignored or unclear and helps to extend the theory, which is considered a proxy for academic development. Thus, when assessing the in- fluence of factors on the debt maturity structure, where the company operates and is
3 listed on the Vietnamese stock market, in an incomplete market condition, institution- al quality factors, financial development, and long-term financing of the economy are believed to be the factors affecting the debt maturity structure. It is necessary to focus on the moderating role of these factors on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure. To the author's knowledge, this has not been focused on in recent years, es- pecially in Vietnam's economy. From theoretical and practical problems, it is necessary to identify the research problem as the factors affecting the company's debt maturity structure in the context of Vietnam's economy. Along with firm characteristics, institutional and macroeco- nomic factors need to be taken into account. As the debt structure is analyzed as the central element of the company's capital structure, the mentioned debt structure is the most prominent feature of the debt maturity structure (Stephan et al., 2011; Alcock et al., 2012); Lemma & Negash, 2012; Colla et al., 2020), so the attention of this study is focused on determining the factors that affect the debt maturity structure. From the above analysis, it is shown that the factors affecting the use of debt can increase the company's value in the context of the economy, as in the case of Vietnam, which is an essential issue to be studied. What should a company in Vietnam need to do to borrow long-term debt and have a reason for the debt maturity structure? This issue in Vi- etnam has not received much research attention from scientists. Vietnam. This is an omission, causing the company to lack a solid basis when making decisions related to selecting a reason for the debt maturity structure to finance the company's operations. Due to the important role of the debt maturity structure in the operation of the compa- ny, to solve this problem, the special task is to find the optimal solutions, thereby helping the company to operate well in the context of the economy of the country. Therefore, the author of the thesis boldly conducts the research topic “Factors affect- ing the debt structure of company listed on the stock market of Vietnam” as the topic of his doctoral dissertation. 1.2. Research status related to the thesis 1.3. Research objectives and questions 1.3.1. Objectives of the study 1.3.1.1. Overall objectives
4 The overall objective of the thesis is to evaluate the factors affecting the debt maturity structure for the case of companies listed on the Vietnamese stock market. In addition, the idea considers the moderating role of institutional quality, financial development, and long-term financing sources of the economy on the influence of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure for the case of listed companies on the Vietnamese stock market. The thesis provides policy implications for company managers and policymakers. 1.3.1.2. Detail goal 1. Evaluation of factors affecting the debt maturity structure for the case of companies listed on Vietnam's stock market, including company characteristics, macroeconomic factors, and institutional quality. 2. Evaluation of the moderating role of institutional quality on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure for the case of companies listed on the Vietnamese stock market. 3. Evaluation of the moder- ating role of financial development on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure for companies listed on the Vietnam stock market. 4. Evaluation of the mod- erating role of the economy's long-term financing on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure for the case of companies listed on the Vietnamese stock market. 5. Provide policy implications for company managers and policymakers. 1.3.2. Research question 1.4. Object and scope of the study 1.4.1. Research subjects The influence of company characteristics, institutional quality, and macroeconomic factors on the debt maturity structure of listed companies in Vietnam. The thesis uses the approach of debt structure based on the balance sheet, that is, considering the short length of the debt. According to this approach, the debt structure is measured by the ratio of long-term (short) debt to the company's total debt. The research problem of the thesis is inherited. The focus is on assessing the factors that affect the debt maturity structure and the speed of adjustment of the debt maturity structure, assessing the moderating role of institutional quality factors, financial development, and long-term funding sources of the economy on the effect of the debt ratio on the debt maturity structure. The object of the thesis focuses on the factors
5 affecting the debt maturity structure (short-term and long-term debt structure); long- term debt is a debt with a length of one year or more (short-term debt is a debt with a long-term maturity). Maturity within 12 months) and have an apparent interest rate. The factors that the study assesses are company characteristics, institutional quality, and macroeconomics. 1.4.2. Research scope About the content: This study focuses on non-financial companies listed to research the influence of factors on the debt maturity structure of the company. The factors that can affect the debt maturity structure of the company focus on two groups of elements: characteristics of the company, institutional quality, and macroeconomics. About time: The study is carried out from 2007 to 2020. Regarding space: Research on the factors affecting the debt maturity structure of companies listed on the Vietnam Stock Exchange (VNX) includes two companies. Its subsidiaries are Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) and Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE). 1.5. Research Methods Research and develop two models to test. The research model has the presence of lagged dependent variable participating in the model as an independent variable so that endogenous phenomena may occur; the study proposes to use the systematic GMM estimator (Blundell & et al. Bond, 1998) to deal with endogeneity, autocorrelation, and variance of the model. The study uses the Arellano - Bond (AR) test on autocorrelation to check the suitability of the GMM estimation method and uses the Hansen test results to assess the reliability of the model. Model 1 was developed to evaluate the factors that affect the debt maturity structure and the adjustment speed of the debt maturity structure. Model 2 was developed to assess the moderating role of institutional quality, financial development, and long-term funding sources of the economy on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure. The data processing method for model 1 is a self-regression model, an approach based on a partial regression model; this model is used in studies on capital structure and debt maturity structure (Ozkan, 2000; Antoniou). & associates, 2006; Deesomsak et al., 2009; Terra, 2011; Krich & Terra, 2012 and Matues & Terra, 2013). For model 2, the study takes into account the moderating role, approaches in building a model to
6 evaluate the moderating role by continuous moderator variable, creating the interaction variable by the observed product as suggested by Henseler & Chin (2010); Henseler & Fassott (2010); Rigdon et al. (2010) and Hair Jr et al. (2021). 1.6. New points and contributions of the thesis 1.6.1. New points of the thesis The thesis expands the scope of explanation of corporate debt maturity struc- ture through new factors affecting the debt maturity structure of companies. Compared with studies on debt structure, Colla et al. (2020) deals with issues such as agency costs, information asymmetry, taxes, asset maturities, or as Serves et al. (2006) refer to it as better information for the market, improved asset quality, addressing short- term investment shortfalls, taking risks on the value of long-term debt, and matching of cash flows from assets financed by debt. Thesis systematic theory on factors affecting the debt maturity structure, achieving a greater explanatory level than existing research on issues such as institutions and such problems as creditor rights and information availability. The results show the influence of factors from company characteristics and institutional and macroeconomic quality. From there, propose appropriate solutions to solve practical problems and verify the theoretical issues presented. The thesis achieves three of the four experimental research objectives. The first objective has shown the expansion of factors such as financial development affecting the debt maturity structure and the speed of adjustment debt maturity structure. In addition, the thesis evaluates the moderating role of financial development and long- term financing sources of the economy on the influence of debt ratio on debt maturity structure. This is thought to be a new contribution that has not been identified in the past by previous studies. Finally, the thesis shows that under the initial assumptions when implementing developed economies, it may not be true in emerging economies such as Vietnam due to limitations in market conditions, so when researching instead of focusing on the long-term debt maturity structure, it should shift that focus to the short-term debt maturity structure, thereby making more appropriate recommendations. 1.6.2. Dissertation contribution
7 1.7. The meaning of the thesis 1.8. Thesis structure The thesis is structured into five chapters as follows: Chapter 1: Introduction; Chapter 2: Theoretical framework and overview of previous studies; Chapter 3: Research methods; Chapter 4: Research results; Chapter 5: Conclusion and policy implications CHAPTER 2: THEOR ITICAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1. Conceptual framework Debt structure The study of debt maturity structure focuses on the identification and interpretation of the decision to choose the debt maturity structure of the firms. Studies appearing very early in the 1980s to mid-1990s include Barnea et al. (1980), Brick & Ravid (1985), Flannery (1986), Barclay & Smith (1995), and Diamond (1991). , Stohs & Mauer (1996). Most of these studies focus on the debt maturity structure of firms in developed countries. The first studies supporting the use of short- term debt by firms include Flannery (1986), Myers (1977), and Barnea et al. (1980). Research supporting the use of long-term debt by firms includes research by Brick & Ravid (1985), Stohs & Mauer (1996), and more recently, has spread to emerging economies such as Cai's study. & associates (2008), Deesomsak et al. (2009), Terra (2011), Stephan et al. (2011), and Lemma & Negash (2012) mainly study the debt ma- turity structure of the industry, electronic engineering. Macroeconomic factors Studies have shown changes in the value of financial assets in response to mac- roeconomic factors such as inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate, GDP, money supply, unemployment rate business, dividends, etc. (Fosu et al., 2014). This study focuses on the following selected macroeconomic factors: inflation (Etudaiye-Muhtar et al., 2017), economic growth (Etudaiye-Muhtar et al., 2017), long-term funding long-term finance (Stephan et al., 2011), and financial development (Pistor et al. (2000); Buchanan & English, 2007; Kirch & Terra, 2012). Institutional factor
8 The institutional factor that the thesis is interested in and its influence on the debt maturity structure is that institutional quality is a factor that belongs outside of the organization (Kirch & Terra, 2012). Firm characteristics Zou & Stan (1998) described firm characteristics as the demographic and administrative factors of the firm, referred to as part of the company's internal environment. Firm characteristics that affect the debt maturity structure of the company can be mentioned as debt ratio (Barclay et al., 2003; Giannetti, 2003; Johnson, 2003; Myers, 1997; Stohs & Mauer, 1991), financial maturity assets (Morris, 1976), firm size (Barnea et al., 1980; Etudaiye-Muhtar et al., 2017), growth opportunities (Antoniou et al., 2006; Diamond, 1991, Guedes & Opler, 1996), Myers, 1977), tax effects (Kane et al., 1985), income volatility (Dang, 2011), liquid assets (Stephan et al., 2011), firm asset quality (Stephan & et al., 2011). associates, 2011). Adjustable speed Adjustment speed is a well-studied concept in the field of capital structure. The concept is based on the fact that businesses have a target capital structure for the coming year and strive to achieve this goal; The speed at which the firm tries to achieve this goal is called the adjustment rate. The concept of adjustment speed has been successfully applied to evaluate the financing decisions of firms. In the study of debt maturity structure, Lemma & Negash (2013) tested the speed of debt maturity structure adjustment in the context of South African countries. Moderating role The moderating role describes a situation where the relationship between two variables is not constant, and it varies depending on the values of a third variable, called the moderator variable (or research concept moderator construct) changes the strength or direction of the relationship between two concepts in the model. Hair Jr et al. (2017) summarizes the most important differences related to the scale of the regu- latory variable, including the distinction between categorical and continuous modera- tors. Some studies have evaluated the moderating role of financial development in the relationship between real income, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions (Chen et al., 2019), while the moderating role of institutional quality is also taken into account
9 by Dada & Ajide (2021) in the study of the underground economic relationship and environmental pollution. The moderating role in the thesis is mentioned in assessing the influence of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure. 2.2. Theoretical framework 2.2.1. Debt term structure 2.2.2. Trade-off theory 2.2.3. Signaling theory 2.2.4. Agency cost theory 2.2.5. Maturity theory 2.2.6. Institutional Theory 2.2.7. Creditor power theory and information availability 2.2. Empirical evidence The thesis categorizes the research into two groups of factors affecting the debt maturity structure: company characteristics, institutional quality, and macroeconomics. 2.2.1. Factors belonging to company characteristics 2.2.2. Institutional quality and macroeconomic factors 2.2.3. The influence of factors on the adjustment speed of CTKHN 2.3. Some comments and research gaps From the review of the research related to the debt maturity structure and the speed of adjustment of the debt maturity structure, there are some comments as follows: Research gap The factors affecting the debt maturity structure continue to be studied in countries with different economic conditions. However, the factors affecting debt ma- turity structure have yet to have consistent results. The reason is that the market conditions in which companies operate vary, and issues such as institutional quality, financial development, and long-term financing of economic resources have not been fully considered. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the influence of the factors on the debt maturity structure and the speed of adjustment of the debt maturity structure because the final results are not available yet.
10 The moderating role of factors in the study of nuclear science in recent years has been ignored and/or not focused on research; only a few studies by Dang (2011), Stephan et al. (2011), and Ngo Van Toan & Pham Thi Thu Hong (2015), and Etudaiye-Muhtar et al. (2017) evaluate the interaction effect. The moderating role is a way of expanding the scope of theory and which theory is good to explain the occurrence of different phenomena; the importance is when, where, and under what conditions. This is very consistent with the research on the debt maturity structure because the moderating role is able to explain the when, where, and under what conditions of the debt decision. However, this is said to be the research that has not been mentioned when studying the factors affecting the debt ma- turity structure and the adjustment speed of the debt maturity structure. Because of the above reasons, the thesis focuses on the following issues: 1. Moderating role of institutional quality on the effect of debt ratio on the debt ma- turity structure for companies listed on the Vietnam stock market. A debt ratio and debt maturity structure are complementary financial policies (Terra, 2009). This is said to be suitable for Vietnam's economic conditions where the business environment is gradually improved, and the legal provisions protecting the rights of creditors and the enforcement of loan contracts will be one of the key factors determinants of long- term funding. However, this effect may not be obvious; under the conditions that the market conditions in the transition period may differ from those of developing economies, there may appear to be a moderating role of the institutional quality factor for the economy with the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure. The mod- erating role has been taken into account in the relationship between the underground economy and environmental pollution (Dada & Ajide, 2021); however, in the relationship between the debt ratio and the debt maturity structure, no research has mentioned it. 2. For financial development, corporate financing has certain benefits, showing the dynamism of financial resources, and increasing transaction efficiency to capital. However, much of the empirical evidence showing the effect of financial development is still unclear (Deesomask et al., 2009; Kirch & Terra, 2012). While the moderating role of financial development in the relationship between real income and energy
11 consumption and emissions (Chen et al., 2019) has been taken into account, this mod- erating role has not been taken into account mentioned in the relationship between debt ratio and debt maturity structure in recent years. 3. The source of long-term financing of the economy in a country, namely the capital market, mainly the stock market, and the bond market. These are supposed to be sources of funding in the economy which are of a long-term nature to the business. However, in the bond market, not all companies can use it; only a number of large or highly reputable companies can use this market. This is most evident in developing economies if gradually improving market conditions help companies reduce the transaction costs associated with using the economy's long-term financing. In addition, it can spill over to the secondary market and economic growth. Under changing market conditions like Vietnam, companies listed on the stock market may have specific limitations, which may cause adverse effects on the debt maturity struc- ture. The moderating role of the economy's long-term financing on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure needs to be taken into account. From the comments and research gaps, the thesis implements the following research objectives: 1. Assessing the influence of factors on the debt maturity structure and the adjustment speed of the debt maturity structure; 2. Assessing the moderating role of institutional quality on the influence of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure; 3. Assessing the moderating role of financial development on the influence of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure; 4. Evaluation of the moderating role of long-term financing of the economy on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure. CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 3.1. Research process 3.2. Research hypothesis 3.2.1. Factors affecting the debt maturity structure of companies listed on the Vietnam stock market Some of the following factors are expected to affect the debt maturity structure. The thesis develops on two groups of factors: company characteristics, institutional quality, and macroeconomic factors.
12 3.2.2. Moderating role of institutional quality on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure for the case of companies listed on the Vietnamese stock market. 3.2.3. Moderating role of financial development on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure for the case of companies listed on the Vietnamese stock market. 3.2.4. The Moderating role of the economy's long-term financing on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure for the case of companies listed on the Vietnamese stock market. The following table shows the variables used for the thesis and the expected sign of this study. Table 3.1: Summary of variables and sign expectations of the model Determinant Factors Theoretical theories Research expectations Asset Maturity Agency/Matching + Size Agency + Growth Liquidity Risk + Signalling Signaling - Volatility Tradeoff / Agency / Signaling - Current Ratio Signaling / Liquidity Risk + Leverage Liquidity Risk + Tax Agency + Inflation (INF) Matching - Gross domestic product (GDP) Agency - Long-term funding of the economy Liquidity Risk + (Bond 1) Financial development (FD) Agency + Institutional quality (INST) Institutional theory + Source: compiled by the author 3.3. Research models MODEL 1 This model 1 was developed to evaluate the influence of factors on the debt maturity structure and the effect of the elements on the adjustment speed of the debt maturity structure in the case of companies listed on the Vietnam stock market. The regression model is as follows: Yi ,t   Yi ,t 1   X i ,t   Zi ,t  i  t   i ,t , (1)
13 Where Yi ,t is the optimal debt term structure of the company i at a time t , Yi ,t 1 is the company's i late debt maturity structure at the time t ; X i ,t is representative of the set of explanatory variables including firm i characteristics at the time t; Inflation at year t; Economic growth at year t; is representative of factors such as long-term funding of economic resources, financial development, institutional quality at the time t; i is the unobservable, time-constant effect on the particular company; t it deals with time-specific effects that are common to all companies but vary over time;  i ,t error components do not change over time;  and  are the estimated regression co- efficients, respectively. Theoretical and empirical findings suggest that firms that make actual debt ma- turity structure adjustments are geared towards the target debt maturity structure (Brick & Ravid, 1985; Kane et al., 1985; Jun & Jen, 2003; Ozkan, 2000; Antoniou et al., 2006). In addition,  in  Yi ,t 1 it indicates the adjustment coefficient while the tar- get debt maturity structure adjustment speed. An adjustment coefficient between 0 and 1 would reveal the presence of a dynamically optimal debt maturity (Antoniou et al., 2006; Dang, 2011; Alcock et al., 2012). This Model 1 is estimated according to variables such as long-term financing of the economy (model 1.1), financial development (model 1.2), and institutional quality (model 1.3), respectively, in turn, added to model 1. MODEL 2 Model 2 assesses the moderating role of factors such as the economy's long- term financing, financial development, and physical quality on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure. Model 2 has the following form: Yi ,t   Yi ,t 1   X i ,t   Zi ,t  i ,t i  t   i ,t , (2) Where is the debt ratio for the company at the time multiplied by factors such as long-term financing of the economy, financial development, and institutional quali- ty? Model 2 is an extension of Model 1 and previous experiments on the debt ma- turity structure (Barclay & Smith, 1995; Ozkan, 2000) to show the moderating role of institutional quality factors and long-term funding sources of the economy and finan-
14 cial development on the effect of debt ratio on debt maturity structure. As in model 1, the delayed debt maturity structure is included to control the dynamics of the debt ma- turity structure. The assumption of the moderating role of institutional quality factors, long- term funding sources of the economy, and financial development on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure may have the following results: 1. Incremental in- fluence: the presence of a moderating role increases the predictor's impact on the out- come; 2. Diminishing effect: the presence of a moderating role reduces the predictor's influence on the result; 3. Antagonistic effect: the emergence of a moderating role re- verses the impact of the predictor on the outcome. This model 2 is estimated according to variables such as financial development (model 2.1), long-term financing of the economy (model 2.2), and overall institutional quality (model 2.3), respectively variables in turn added to model 2. 3.4. Research Methods 3.4.1. Variable measurement 3.4.2. Data analysis and processing methods The partial adjustment model approach Approach to building a model to evaluate the moderating role Stability test 3.4.3. Model tests 3.5. Data collection methods CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1. Capital markets, financial development, and institutional quality 4.1.1. Capital market 4.1.1.1. Banking and stock market 4.1.1.2. Long-term funding of the economy 4.1.2. Financial development 4.1.3. Institutional quality 4.2. Empirical research results 4.2.1. Descriptive statistics of research data
15 4.2.2. Analyze the relationship between variables 4.2.3. Check for multicollinearity 4.3. Regression results and results discussion 4.3.1. Results and discussion regression results of model 1 To assess the influence of factors on the debt maturity structure, this model 1 is estimated according to models 1.1 (long-term financing of the economy), model 1.2 (financial development), and model 1.3 (financial development), institutional quality. Table 4.1: Regression results of model 1 Dep. var: LTDM Model 1.1 Model 1.2 Model 1.3 LTDMi,t-1 0.632*** 0.646*** 0.617*** [0.028] [0.029] [0.035] ASSET_MATURITY -0.002 -0.004 0.019 [0.024] [0.021] [0.014] GROWTH 0.479*** 0.142 0.679*** [0.129] [0.141] [0.150] SIZE 0.004*** 0.004*** 0.004*** [0.001] [0.001] [0.001] TURNOVER -0.057*** -0.055*** -0.050*** [0.010] [0.008] [0.008] VOLATILITY 0.004 0.002 0.013 [0.005] [0.015] [0.012] CURRENT_RATIO 0.006 0.012** -0.009 [0.007] [0.006] [0.006] LEVERAGE 0.050 0.090 0.022 [0.051] [0.062] [0.047] TAX 0.251*** 0.279** 0.291** [0.082] [0.116] [0.123] INF -0.000 0.001*** 0.000* [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] GDP -0.008** -0.018*** -0.008** [0.004] [0.004] [0.004] BOND1 -0.027 [0.017] FD 0.168*** [0.040] INST 0.044 [0.042] Constant 0.050*** 0.003 0.063** [0.017] [0.017] [0.026] AR(1) p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 AR(2) p-value 0.681 0.922 0.444 Hansen p-value 0.102 0.271 0.123 F statistic p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 Observations 5,595 5,595 5,595 Note: Standard errors are in []. *Significant at 10% level. **Significant at 5% level. ***Significant at 1% level. Testing the research model Analysis of regression results
16 To evaluate the financial development factor to the debt maturity structure more specifically. This study continues to test Model 1.2 with lower indicators of overall financial development and depth, accessibility, and efficiency indicators. In addition, model 1.2 is also estimated from (1) to (8) as two estimates for the index of financial institutions and financial markets and six estimates for the index of financial institutions and financial markets, respectively, lower levels of financial institutions and financial markets (depth, accessibility, and efficiency). Table 4.2: Regression results of model 1.2 Dep. var: LTDM (1) (2) (3) (4) LTDMi,t-1 0.646*** 0.646*** 0.641*** 0.647*** [0.029] [0.028] [0.029] [0.029] ASSET_MATURITY -0.004 -0.012 0.007 -0.005 [0.021] [0.022] [0.021] [0.021] GROWTH 0.153 0.311** 0.250* 0.160 [0.141] [0.141] [0.131] [0.140] SIZE 0.004*** 0.004*** 0.003*** 0.004*** [0.001] [0.001] [0.001] [0.001] TURNOVER -0.055*** -0.050*** -0.052*** -0.054*** [0.008] [0.008] [0.008] [0.008] VOLATILITY 0.002 0.005 0.012 0.001 [0.015] [0.015] [0.014] [0.015] CURRENT_RATIO 0.012** -0.008 0.012** 0.012** [0.006] [0.006] [0.006] [0.006] LEVERAGE 0.087 0.062 0.088 0.087 [0.062] [0.059] [0.059] [0.062] TAX 0.275** 0.220** 0.262** 0.274** [0.116] [0.106] [0.119] [0.115] INF 0.001*** 0.001* 0.001*** 0.001** [0.000] [0.001] [0.000] [0.000] GDP -0.015*** -0.014*** -0.018*** -0.013*** [0.004] [0.005] [0.005] [0.004] FM 0.079*** [0.019] FMD 0.108 [0.074] FMA 0.293*** [0.076] FME 0.029*** [0.007] Constant 0.022 0.031* -0.045 0.030* [0.016] [0.018] [0.030] [0.016] AR(1) p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 AR(2) p-value 0.920 0.478 0.827 0.915 Hansen p-value 0.272 0.155 0.269 0.269 F statistic p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Observations 5,595 5,595 5,595 5,595 Note: Standard errors are in []. *Significant at 10% level. **Significant at 5% level. ***Significant at 1% level. This empirical evidence is considered new compared to previous studies be- cause this study exploited the full range of IMF data on financial development. This
17 result shows the following points to pay attention: Financial market development has a positive influence on the debt maturity structure and the adjustment speed of the debt maturity structure. This result is considered to be consistent with the situation of Vi- etnam's economy; that is, the development of the financial market is said to be benefi- cial for the debt maturity structure. Financial markets have developed that allow indi- viduals and companies to diversify their savings and companies to raise funds through stocks, bonds, and the foreign exchange market; In addition, this result also reflects that the efficiency and approach to financial market development have a positive in- fluence on the debt maturity structure and the adjustment speed of the debt maturity structure. This effect shows that the convenience of transactions in the market makes the debt maturity structure longer. In addition, the level of capital market activity is said to be efficient, which leads to a more extended debt maturity structure. Table 4.3: Regression results of model 1.2 (continued) Dep. var: LTDM (5) (6) (7) (8) LTDMi,t-1 0.642*** 0.643*** 0.648*** 0.602*** [0.029] [0.027] [0.029] [0.036] ASSET_MATURITY -0.003 -0.004 -0.012 0.024* [0.022] [0.021] [0.021] [0.014] GROWTH 0.343*** 0.453*** 0.272* 0.740*** [0.131] [0.126] [0.140] [0.163] SIZE 0.004*** 0.003*** 0.004*** 0.004*** [0.001] [0.001] [0.001] [0.001] TURNOVER -0.053*** -0.050*** -0.051*** -0.055*** [0.009] [0.006] [0.008] [0.007] VOLATILITY -0.000 0.003 -0.000 0.013 [0.015] [0.016] [0.015] [0.012] CURRENT_RATIO 0.012** 0.011* 0.011* -0.008 [0.006] [0.006] [0.006] [0.006] LEVERAGE 0.051 0.038 0.063 0.015 [0.062] [0.051] [0.059] [0.046] TAX 0.257** 0.240*** 0.235** 0.364*** [0.120] [0.089] [0.105] [0.097] INF -0.001* -0.000 0.000 0.000 [0.000] [0.001] [0.000] [0.000] GDP 0.013 0.003 -0.008** 0.016 [0.009] [0.009] [0.004] [0.017] FI -0.731*** [0.272] FID -0.291*
18 [0.167] FIA -0.317** [0.137] FIE -0.606 [0.407] Constant 0.187*** 0.057*** 0.072*** 0.354* [0.057] [0.021] [0.022] [0.211] AR(1) p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 AR(2) p-value 0.849 0.480 0.862 0.439 Hansen p-value 0.155 0.213 0.107 0.175 F statistic p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Observations 5,595 5,595 5,595 5,595 Note: Standard errors are in []. *Significant at 10% level. **Significant at 5% level. ***Significant at 1% level. This result is said to have no previous research related to debt maturity struc- ture. Accordingly, the debt maturity structure of companies listed on Vietnam's stock market has decreased due to the influence of the development of financial institutions (FI). Specifically: The development of financial institutions (FI) is detrimental to debt maturity structure companies on Vietnam's stock market. This can conceivably be the reality now and from the past that the banking system dominates in corporate finance. Therefore, there are many advantages to providing financing to the company, but this does not make it easier for businesses to borrow long-term if they do not comply with the requirements of these organizations. For example, collateral for long-term debt ob- ligations requires more fixed assets than short-term; The development of financial in- stitution depth (FID) and financial institution depth (FIA) is detrimental to the debt maturity structure of companies listed on the Vietnamese stock market. It shows that the level of representation of the banking system appears quite a lot and the level of access is quite easy, so providing financial services is quite convenient. This is also said to be the company's ability to monitor and collect information easier and to get long-term loans more difficult. Because the original bank mobilizes many different terms and usually only wants to lend short term to avoid the risks arising from lending out of date. In addition, compared with model 1.2 on the influence of financial develop- ment factors (FD) on the debt maturity structure, estimates (5) and (8) show that there is a difference affecting the debt maturity structure. This difference comes from fac- tors such as asset maturity and inflation.
19 Comments on the speed of adjustment of the debt maturity structure of listed companies in Vietnam show that the adjustment speed is quite slow (35.5% to 38.3%). Compared with the research results of the world and Vietnam, there are differences. Specifically, López-Gracia & Mestre-Barberá (2010) for SMEs is 37%, in Terra's (2011) study for Latin American companies, it is 46% to 68%, and Dang's results (2011) for UK companies is 60% to 62%. In addition, this result is also different from the study of Nguyen Thanh Nha (2020) for real estate companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) of 53.41%. 4.3.2. Results and discussion of regression results of model 2 Table 4.4: Results of regression model 2 Dep. var: LTDM Model 2.1 Model 2.2 Model 2.3 LTDMi,t-1 0.640*** 0.595*** 0.616*** [0.030] [0.031] [0.035] ASSET_MATURITY -0.002 0.028 0.019 [0.021] [0.027] [0.015] GROWTH 0.079 0.466*** 0.637*** [0.145] [0.134] [0.151] SIZE 0.004*** 0.002 0.003*** [0.001] [0.001] [0.001] TURNOVER -0.057*** -0.065*** -0.050*** [0.008] [0.011] [0.008] VOLATILITY -0.000 0.001 0.008 [0.014] [0.005] [0.014] CURRENT_RATIO 0.012** 0.018** -0.009 [0.006] [0.008] [0.007] LEVERAGE -0.162 0.261*** 0.014 [0.162] [0.076] [0.148] TAX 0.301*** 0.385*** 0.351*** [0.115] [0.126] [0.127] INF 0.001*** 0.000 0.000** [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] GDP -0.018*** -0.003 -0.007* [0.004] [0.004] [0.004] FD 0.138*** [0.041] LEVERAGE x FD 0.692* [0.396] BOND1 0.047* [0.025] LEVERAGE x BOND1 -0.920*** [0.220] INST 0.067 [0.065] LEVERAGE x INST -0.072 [0.322] Constant 0.013 0.006 0.070** [0.020] [0.020] [0.033] AR(1) p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000
20 AR(2) p-value 0.882 0.945 0.439 Hansen p-value 0.276 0.513 0.147 F statistic p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 Observations 5,595 5,595 5,595 Note: Standard errors are in []. *Significant at 10% level. **Significant at 5% level. ***Significant at 1% level. Testing regression model Analysis of regression results This model 2 is used to evaluate the moderating role of the long-term financing factors of the economy, financial development, and institutional quality on the influ- ence of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure. In this model 2, if the moderating role arises when the debt ratio affects the debt maturity structure, the change in the magnitude or even the direction of this relationship is caused by the appearance of the third variable. The results of this model 2 have some notable results as follows: The results of the regression model 2 testing the moderating role are most evident in model 2.1 and model 2.2. For model 2.3, there is no moderating role of INST on the effect of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure; For model 2.1, regression shows that the magnitude of the coefficient of the interaction variable (LEVERAGE x FD) increases significantly (0.692) compared to the influence of financial development (FD) on the debt maturity structure (0.138). This is said to be an "increasing effect" when a mod- erating role increases the effect of FD on the impact of debt ratio on the debt ratio. However, this model 2.1 shows the major impact of FD on debt maturity structure, the interaction effect of FD and debt ratio on debt maturity structure. Thus, financial de- velopment increases the influence of debt ratio on the debt maturity structure; For model 2.2, it shows that the magnitude of the coefficient of the interaction variable (LEVERAGE x BOND1) reduces (-0.92) compared to the same positive effect of BOND1 on debt maturity structure (0.047), this effect is said to be relatively small and has the same effect of LEVERAGE on CKD (0.261). This is said to be a "reducing effect" when the presence of a moderating role reduces the impact of the economy's long-term financing on the effect of the debt ratio on the debt maturity structure. The results of model 2.2 show the main influence of the debt ratio and long-term funding sources of the economy on the debt maturity structure and the interaction effect of re- ducing the debt ratio on the debt maturity structure. This result shows that the long- term financing of the economy does not do a good job of providing long-term loans,