Triển vọng xuất khẩu dệt may của Việt Nam

sd 04 (2011)<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Trien vong xuat khau<br /> det may cua Viet Nam<br /> TS. LE QOOC PHtfdNG<br /> Pho Giam doc Trung tam Thong tin Cong nghiep ua ThiCang mai<br /> Bo Cong ThiXOng<br /> <br /> <br /> Tmh hinh xud't khd'u d$t khodng 30% (so vdi mffc tdng khiu ddt may cua cd nffdc<br /> may thcTi gian qua 23,6% ndm 2010). (trong dd My cMd'm trdn 50%,<br /> May mdc Id ngdnh md Viet EU 20% vd Nhdt Bdn ti-en dffdi<br /> Ddt may la mat hang xua't Nam cd nMlu tbd' manh. Trong 10%). Ddy cung la 3 tiii trffdng<br /> khiu chu Itfc sd 1 cua Vidt Nam nMlu ndm gin day, nffdc ta nhdp khiu quin do Idn nhl^t<br /> dem lai gid tri kim ngach ttfdng ludn nim trong danh sdch 10 ti-en the gidi (EU cMem 47%<br /> dd'i Idn cho nin kinh te'. Nam qudc gia cd kim ngach xud't tdng kim ngach nhap khiu ddt<br /> 2010, kim ngach xud't khiu dat khiu hang ddt may Idn nha't thd may todn clu. My 22% va<br /> 11,2 ty USD, cMd'm 15,6% tdng gidi. Theo sd Ueu cua Market Nhat Ban 10%). Hidn cdc<br /> kim ngach xua't khiu, vtfdt xa Research World (NgMdn cffu doanh ngMdp det may dang nd<br /> cdc mat hang xua't khiu chu Itfc Thi tiirdng The gidi), nam 2008 Iffc xdm nhap cdc tbi trffdng<br /> khdc nhtf: gidy dep 7,1%, thuy Viet Nam xdp thff 6 trong cdc khdc nhff Nga, New Zealand,<br /> sdn va dau thd diu 6,9%, dien "effdng qud'c xud't khiu ddt Thuy ST, Trung Ddng.<br /> tff, may tinh va linh kidn 5%, gd may" thd gidi, cM sau Trung<br /> va san phIm gd 4,8%, gao Qudc, Hdng Kdng,^^Thd NM Thudn 10 va kho khan ciia<br /> 4,5%... Dtf kidn ca nam 2011, Ky, Bangladesh vd An Dp. xud't kh^u dot may ViOt Nam<br /> kim ngach xuat khiu ddt may Ba till tiifdng xul^t khiu ddt<br /> se dat mffc ky luc mdi la 13,5 ty may Idn nhat cua nffdc ta la Sff phdt triln manh me cua<br /> USD. Trung binh mdi thang My, EU va Nhdt Bdn cMdm ngdnh cdng ngMdp may mac<br /> kim ngach xuat khiu ddt may la ttdn 80% tdng kim ngach xua't trong nhiftig ndm qua la do<br /> 1,125 ^ USD.<br /> Trong nMlu nam qua, ddt KlM NGACH XaAT KHAU D$T MAY CdlA VlfT NAM GIAI DOAN 1995-2011<br /> <br /> may Id ngdnh cd td'c dO tang<br /> 1S.000<br /> trtfdng cao. Giai doan 2001-<br /> 2010, tdc dO tang tiirdng tiling<br /> binh nam cua kim ngach xul^t 10.000<br /> khiu ddt may la 20,1% (tinh<br /> todn ciia tac gia tff sd hdu Tong<br /> cue Thdng kd). Ddn nam 2011, S.000<br /> <br /> do nin kinh td toan clu phai<br /> ddi mat vdi nMlu khd khan,<br /> ndn tdc dO tang tiirdng chdm lai<br /> ddng k l . Mac du vdy, kun<br /> Nam<br /> ngach xuat khiu ddt may ntfdc<br /> ta vin tang trtfdng manh. Ngudn: Tdng eye Thdng ke<br /> <br /> <br /> T6ng quan<br /> 93 Kinh te-Xa hoi<br /> V i t ' l i\[a«n<br />  CONG THddNG NONG NGHIEP<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> nffdc ta cd dffdc nhilu didu cao, nhilu nffdc da vd dang di M^t Id, ngdnh may mdc xult<br /> kidn tiiudn Idi. Dd Id: chuyin ngdnh dOt may sang khiu cua nffdc ta phu tiiuOc<br /> cdc qudc gia khdc cd chi phi ndng n l vdo nhdp khiu nguy6n<br /> Thit nhdt, Iffc Iffdng lao dpng thd'p hdn. ViOt Nam Id dia dilm vat liOu diu vdo. Do chffa phdt<br /> ddi ddo vd chi phi lao dOng dffdc nhilu nhd diu tff nffdc triln dtfdc cdng nghiOp phu trd<br /> tffdng ddi thd'p. Vdi ddn sd 87 ngodi Itfa chpn. Tff diu thdp dd manh ttong ITnh vtfc d$t<br /> tiidu ngffdi (ndm 2010), ViOt nidn 1990, cdc nin kinh tdNIC may, chu ydu Id gia cdng xulft<br /> Nam bidn Id nffdc ddng ddn tiiff (hay cdc con Rdng chdu A) Id khiu, ndn phdi nhdp khiu phIn<br /> 13 ti-dn till gidi. Vdi ca'u tiijc Hdn Qudc, Ddi Loan, Hdng Idn nguydn vdt liOu diu vdo<br /> dan sd khd trd, ty Ip ngffdi Kdng, Singapore da bit diu di (nhtf bdng-vdi-sdi, khuy do,<br /> ti-ong dp tudi lao dOng tff 15 chuyin ngdnh dOt may sang khda, thudc nhupm). Trffdc<br /> dd'n 60 tudi chid'm 60%, tffc Id cdc qudc gia cd chi phi lao ndm 2003, t^ 10 nhdp khiu<br /> khodng 50,4 tripu ngffdi. Trong dOng thap ti-ong dd cd ViOt nguydn vat liOu xu^t khiu dSt<br /> khi dd. may mdc Id ngdnh Nam. Gin day, xuat MOn tiidm may cda ViOt Nam Id ti-6n<br /> khdng ddi bdi ttinh dp tay nghi xu htfdng djch chuyin sdn xuaft 100%, dilu ndy cho tiily ngdnh<br /> qud cao, do vay Iffc Iffdng lao hdng dOt may tff cdc ntfdc Ddng dOt may nhap sidu giai doan<br /> dpng nffdc ta vl cd bdn cd tbi Au sang chau A. Dd Id cd hpi dd. Nhffhg tff ndm 2004 ty If<br /> ddp ffng dffdc. Hidn ngdnh sdn tibuan Idi d l ntfdc ta tidp tuc md ndy cd gidm, song ddn ndm<br /> xua't ddt may dang thu hut rpng quy md sdn xuat vd xua't 2009 van cdn d mffc 73,7%.<br /> khodng 2,5 trieu lao ddng khiu hdng ddt may. Gid tri gia tdng ciia xuat khiu<br /> cMdm khodng 5% sd ngffdi may mdc ViOt Nam rit thip.<br /> trong dp tudi lao ddng cd nffdc. Thicba, diu ttf vdo ngdnh sdn Cho den ndm 2009, ntfdc ta vin<br /> Mffc Iffdng binh quan cua xuat may mdc khdng qud Idn, nhdp khiu tdi 73,7% nguydn vat<br /> cdng nhan ngdnh ddt may d khu vdi cdng nghO khdng qud phffc hOu dau vdo cho ngdnh det may<br /> vffc pMa Bac hidn nay Id tap vd dat tiln, dilu dd tiiicb hdp xuat khiu cho tiiay tuy kim<br /> khoang 2-2,5 tridu ddng/thdng vdi tiinh dp cdng nghO cdn ban ngach xuat khau hdng may mdc<br /> (tffdng dffdng d-dn dffdi 100 chd vd khd nang ban hep vl vdn Udn tuc tdng manh tit)ng nhiilig<br /> USD). Day la mffc cM pM lao diu ttf cua cdc ntfdc dang phdt ndm qua, nhffhg gid tii gia tang<br /> dpng tffdng ddi tha'p so vdi nMlu tiien,ti-ongdo cd ViOt Nam. cua may mdc xuat khau rat tfalp.<br /> nffdc hdn thd gidi vd ngay hong Ben canh nhifng tiiuan Idi Dd Id chffa kl nMlu thiet k^<br /> khu vffc Ddng Nam A. tbi ngdnh may mdc xud't khiu mau ma ciia cdc san pham may<br /> cua ntfdc ta dang phdi ddi mdt mdc diu phdi lay tff nffdc ngoaL<br /> Thic hai, do nhdn cdng tiiid'u vdi nhijfng thdch thffc khdng Ngodi ra, hdng ndm nffdc ta ph^i<br /> but vd cM phi lao dpng tdng nhd. Dd Id: nhap khiu mOt Iffdng Idn mdy<br /> mdc, tMd't bi, phu tiing cho<br /> TY \.% NHAP KHAU NGUYEN VAT L l | U TR^N XUAT KHAU D$T MAY CUA V 1 | T NAM ngdnh dOt may (kim ngach nhdp<br /> khiu cdc sdn phIm nay nam<br /> 150 -, 2007 Id 642 tiiOu USD, nam<br /> 2008 Id 848 tiiOu USD, nam<br /> 120.5<br /> 2009 Id 450 tiiOu USD). N^u<br /> E H<br /> <br /> •<br /> 112.3<br /> <br /> • ^ 90.e 98 4<br /> tinh day dii cd cdc cM pM do, gia<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Mill II 1 1<br /> 5- »*» 81.e<br /> 78 3<br /> tri gia tang cua nganh dOt may<br /> 73.7 con thd'p hdn nMlu.<br /> <br /> 50 - Hai la, cM pM lao ddng<br /> 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2000 2007 2008 2009<br /> nganh dOt may c6 xu hffdng<br /> Nam<br /> ngdy cdng tang. Tff ng^y<br /> Ngu6n: Tfnh toin cua tec gii tir s6' liOu T6ng eye Thdng kg 1/10/2011, mffc Iffdng tdi thi^u<br /> <br /> T«ing q n a n<br /> <br /> Kinh te-Xa hoi 94<br /> Viet Mam<br />  so 04 (2011)<br /> <br /> <br /> ciia lao ddng trong Hnh vffc nhap khiu cMnh eua nffdc ta phIm dau ra vd kim ngach<br /> kinh doanh dffpc CMnh pliu dang dffhg len ngdy cang nMlu xud't khiu diu tang hau nhff<br /> quy dinh tang txi 1,35 tridu len hang rdo bdo hp trd Mnh dffdi gd'p ddi mffc hiOn nay. Ddc<br /> 2tiiOud/thdng (tdng gin 50%). cdc Mnh tiiffc khdc nhau nhff biet, ty trpng bdn thdnh phIm,<br /> Song trdn tiiffc te, cd nhilu tidu chuIn ky tiiuat, tidu chuIn bao gdm cd thidt kd, dffdc ddt<br /> doanh ngMOp da phdiff-dIffPng lao ddng, xua't xff hdng hda gay ra muc tidu Id se tdng tff 5%<br /> cao hdn nMlu so mffc Iffpng tdi khd khdn cho vide xult khiu hien nay len 20% ndm 2020.<br /> tMlu trffdc kM cd quyd't dinh hdng may mdc. Xet trong bdi cdnh MOn<br /> ndy dl giff chan cdng nhan. nay, cd till thd'y cdc muc tidu<br /> Dilu dd kMd'n Idi thd so sdnh Trid'n vpng phat triln dl ra cd bdn Id khd thi. ViOc<br /> va Idi the canh d-anh cua nganh thffc MOn cdc muc tieu dd se<br /> may mac nffdc ta cd xu hffdng Dff bdo ngdnh xud't khiu giup ViOt Nam duy tri vi tri Id<br /> ngdy cdng gidm. dOt may ViOt Nam van cdn qud'c gia nam trong danh sdch<br /> nhilu tilm ndng tdng hurdng, it cdc effdng qudc xud't khiu dOt<br /> Ba la, mffc dp canh tt-anh nhd't Id ti-ong 10-15 ndm tdi. may bdng dau till gidi.<br /> tren thi trffdng the gidi ddi vdi Bdi vi chung ta cd Ipi tiid so Tuy nhidn, dilu cIn ddc biOt<br /> xud't khiu sdn phIm may mdc sdnh Idn vl lao dpng, ca'u true Iffff y Id ke hoach phdt trien<br /> ngdy cdng gay gat Trong qud dan sd ttd ndn Iffc Iffdng lao ngdnh dOt may Men nay vd<br /> tiinh phan cdng lao ddng qudc ddng cdn rat ddi ddo. Do dd, trong giai doan trffdc mat (5-10<br /> te, ngdy cang cd nMlu nffdc tdc dp tdng cbi pM lao ddng dff ndm) cM nen dffdc xem Id mdt<br /> dang phdt triln tham gia vdo bdo Id se khdng nhanh bang phffdng cdch nham thu hut vd<br /> san xua't hang may mac dl xua't tdc dp tang trffdng xua't khiu tan dung Iffc Iffdng lao dpng<br /> khiu sang cdc nin kinh te phdt hang dOt may. dffpc ddo tao d mffc vffa phdi<br /> tiiln. Trong sd dd cd: Trung Thdm vdo dd, nffdc ta la cdn rd't Idn vdi gid nhan cdng<br /> C^idc, Thd Nhi Ky, cac nffdc mdt nin kinh td tffdng ddi ndng cdn tffdng ddi thap. Vl ddi ban,<br /> Ddng Nam A (ViOt Nam, ddng vdi tiem ndng tdng Idi till so sdnh cua ViOt Nam<br /> CampucMa, Indonesia, Thai trffdng cao vd mdi trffdng diu trong Knh vffc san xua't vd xua't<br /> Lan, Phihpine), Nam A (An Dp, tff kha dn dinh. Dilu dd da tao khiu hang dOt may se ngay<br /> Bangladesh, Pakistan) vd chau sffc hap ddn ddi vdi cdc nhd cdng giam cung vdi da tang ciia<br /> My (Mexico, Honduras, diu tff nffdc ngoai cung nhff ddi cM pM lao dpng. Do do, khdng<br /> Columbia). Dilu dd kMen mffc vdi cac ban hang. thi dffa mai vdo Idi the lao<br /> dp canh ttanh vl xuat khiu sdn Dffa hdn cdc tiln dl dd, dpng gid re; lai cang khdng ndn<br /> phIm dOt may frdn thi trffdng ngdnh dOt may da dl ra quy xdc dinh trong ddi ban ViOt<br /> qudc tdngay cang gay gat. Bdn hoach phdt trien dd'n ndm Nam Id "xffdng may" cua thd'<br /> canh do, hang may mac phai 2020. Theo dd, cd sdn xua't gidi. CMd'n Iffdc Cdng ngMOp<br /> ddi mat vdi ngay cang nMlu nguydn vat UOu diu vdo (vdi, hda, MOn dai hda da't nffdc ddi<br /> hang rdo bao hp. Cac thi trffdng sdi) ciing nhff tdng sd san hoi phdi nhanh chdng dich<br /> chuyin cd ca'u nin kinh te sang<br /> cdc nganh sdn xud't cd gia tri<br /> MUC TIEU P H A T TRIEN C^A NGANH D | T MAY DEN N A M 2020<br /> gia tang vd ham Iffdng cdng<br /> IKj' , Chitifeu Ddn vi 2010 2020 nghO cao hdn, cffng vdi dd Id<br /> Skn xuat sdi nghin tan 350 650 viOc dao tao vd sff dung lao<br /> Sin xu^t vii t^m^ 1 2 ddng vdi trinh dp vd tay nghi<br /> Sin phIm may t^ sin pham 1,8 4 ngdy cang cao. Cd vdy, ViOt<br /> T^ If noi dia hoa % 50 70 Nam mdi ed thi trdnh dffdc tut<br /> T;^ trong bin thinh pham g6m ci thi^t kg" % 5 20 hau xa hdn vl kinh td, sdm trd<br /> Kim ngach xu^t khau t^USD 11,2 25<br /> thdnh mdt nffdc cdng ngMOp<br /> phdt triln trong tffdng lai.Q<br /> Ngudn: T|p dodn D?t may Vi§t Nam<br /> <br /> <br /> T^ng quan<br /> 95 Kinh te-Xa hoi<br />