Diễn biến chỉ số giá hàng tiêu dùng từ năm 1976 đến năm 2008 (Tiếp theo và hết)

TAI CHINH-TIEN TE<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Diin bien chi so gia hdng tieu dung<br /> tCf nann 1976 den nam 2008<br /> (Tiep theo va het)<br /> V 6 HUNG DUNG<br /> <br /> 2 . 5 . Lai suat n g a n h kinh doanh phai chiu lai suat cao.<br /> Tfl n a m 1988 den 1992 cd r a t nhieu loai Tfl n a m 1993, lai suat cho vay goin lai<br /> lai suat khac n h a u (cd che da lai suat): lai t h a n h 2 loai: lai s u a t cho vay vdn ed dinh va<br /> s u i t tien gfli k h d n g ky b a n , cd ky b a n 3 cho vay vo'n Iflu dpng, den nam 1994 doi<br /> t h a n g . cd ky b a n 6 t h a n g . cd ky b a n 1 n a m t h a n h cho vay n g a n b a n va vay dai han.<br /> cho bp gia dinh va cho to ehflc kinh te. Lai Ngoai cac loai lai s u a t cd b a n noi tren, d khu<br /> s u a t cho vay thi qui dinh ap d u n g cho tflng vflc ndng t b d n ndi cac Quy tin dung boat<br /> n g a n h : cac n g a n h san x u a t nhfl nong nghiep, dpng dupe ap d u n g lai s u a t tin dung d ndng<br /> cdng n g h i e p difdc vay vdi lai s u a t t h a p , cac tbdn cao hdn eae loai lai suat ndi tren.<br /> BANG 5.1: Lai s u a t n g a n h a n g tii n a m 1988-1995<br /> <br /> 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995<br /> Thiing 12 3 12 12 12 3 9 3 8 9<br /> Lai suiVt lien giri:<br /> Khdng ky han -hd gia dinh 9 5 2,4 2,1 2,1 1.2 1 0,7 0,7<br /> Ky han 3 thang - ho gia dinh 6 12 7 4 3,5 3,5 2.3 ~i<br /> 1,4 1,4<br /> Lai sui'it cho vay (*'): 2.1 2,1<br /> Ndng nghiep 2.5 10,5 3,7 2,4 3,3 3.3 2.5 2.5<br /> Cdng nghiep va giao thdng 3 10,5 3,8 2,7 3 3 2.8 2.6<br /> <br /> Thuong mai va du lich 3.6 10,5 3,9 2,9 3,7 3.7 3,2 2.7<br /> <br /> Chenh lech LS giri va cho vay (a) -3 -1.5 -3,3 -1.3 -0,5 -0.5 0,5 0.6 0.7 0,7<br /> <br /> Lam phat (b) 7,2 7,3 2,7 7,7 4,8 3.4 0,2 1 0.9 0,2<br /> <br /> Lai suai thuc ( c):<br /> Tiei kiem 3 thang ho gia dinh 4,7 4,3 -3,7 -1.3 0.1 2,1 1 0.5 1,2<br /> <br /> Qio vay: - Cdng nghiep va giao thdng -4.2 3,2 1.1 -5 -1,8 -0.4 2,6 1.6 1,2 1.9<br /> <br /> - Vdn cd dinh -6,9 -0,4 -2,6 1 0,8 0,8 1,5<br /> <br /> Ni^iian: Viet Nam chudng trinh phat trien ngiinh tai chinh. Nxb The gidi, thang 3-19 95va Nien giam thdng ke 1995.<br /> (a) Tiet kiem ky hqn 3 thdng ciia ho gia dinh va cho vay cong nghiep vd giao thong; (b) Lam phdt trung<br /> binh hdng thdng trong quy; (c) Lai suat thiic diia tren lai suat danh nghia tai audi moi quy vd lam phdt<br /> trung hinh hdng thdng trong quy. Vi du lai suat tien gid 3 thdng cila thdng 3 nam 1989 Id r27c. lam phdt<br /> cudi ciia quy ndy Id 7,3'/, nhU vay lai suat thiic ciia tien gid 3 thdng ho gia dinh la 4,77.. Ldi suat cho uay<br /> vdi cong nghiep vd giao thong Id 10.5%, lam phdt la 7,3% nen ldi sud't thiic ciia vay trong khdi cong<br /> nghiep, giao thong Id 3,2%..(*) Ldi suat tinh theo thdng, nam 1994 vd 1995 thay doi thdnh cho vay ngan<br /> han 2,17i, cho vay ddi hqn 1.7% thdng.<br /> <br /> Vo Hung Dung, TS., VCCl Can Thu.<br /> <br /> <br /> 21<br />  Diin bien chi so gia ...<br /> <br /> <br /> Tfl cudi nam 1988, ed sfl thay dd'i chinh buy ddng vdn, nhUng chi cd the cho vay long<br /> sach ve lai s u i t trong mot loat cac giai phap vdng de roi sau mot thdi gian thi dd be, vd nd.<br /> ebdng lam phat. Thang 12-1988, lai suat cd Lai suat tang da thu hut manh tien vao<br /> ky han 3 thang cho hd gia dinh dUdc nang ngan hang, kiem che lam phat nhUng tao<br /> len la fi"o. lai sua't cho vay nang len d mfle nen hien tUdng dd' xd giii tiet kiem de hUdng<br /> u-un^ binh la 3% (bang 5.1). Den thang 9- ldi. NgUdi vay rat n g i n ngai, vi khdng boat<br /> 1989. lai suat tiet kiem khdng ky ban nang ddng kinh doanh nao cd dUdc ty suit ldi<br /> leu 9"n. ed ky ban la 12"o: lai suat cho vay nhuan bIng vdi lai suat tiet kiem. Den nam<br /> dupe thdng nhat la 10,5%. Den thang 12- 1992, khi lai suat tiet kiem giam xud'ng mflc<br /> 1989, lai suat tien gfli dUde dieu chinh giam thap hdn nhieu sd trUde dd, da gay ra phan<br /> xu'mg eon 5% vdi khdng ky ban va 9% vdi ky flng manh me ciia nhflng ngfldi sd'ng nbd tien<br /> han 3 thang eho bp gia dinh; lai s u i t vay gfli tiet kiem trong thdi ky lai suat la lung.<br /> liiam con xap xi 4% thang. Dieu gay ngac<br /> Cudi cung thi do' vd hang loat cung xay<br /> nhien la cd ehe lai suat buy dpng lai cao hdn<br /> ra. D i u tien la eae quy tin dung pbUdng. xa,<br /> so lai suat eho vay ma mflc chenh lech cd the<br /> tiep la hang loat edng ty tfl cap buyen den<br /> den gap ddi.<br /> cap tinh, nha may xi nghiep vd nd, pha san<br /> Lai suat tiet kiem thay ddi cung ed che het nhUng khdng cd luat pha san xU ly. Tfl<br /> sflc thoang la viec chd phep thanh lap eae 12.000 doanh nghiep nha nUde giam eon<br /> quy tin dung cap xa, phUdng. Vdi ed ehe la tren 6.000 la mdt eupc tai eau true Idn sau<br /> liing nay bang loat quy tin dung ra ddi de eupc chien ebdng lam phat nhflng nam 90.<br /> <br /> BANG 5.2: Lai s u a t tien giii va cho vay C^'c t h e o n a m )<br /> <br /> 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999<br /> <br /> Thiing {^') 9 12 1 12 2<br /> Tien gui ilc);inli nghiep 1.2 8,7 6,2 4,9 4,6 5,4 6,2 6,2<br /> Tioi kiem 3 lining 18.2 18,2 8,7 7.4 8,1 9,1 10 10<br /> \'a> ngan Man 28,3 28,3 16,1 12,7 12,7 15 15,4 14<br /> \ ay trung w'l dai han 22 4 22,4 17,5 14 14 15 16 14,7<br /> Cho \'a\ ngoai te 9 9,5 9.5 8,5 8,5 8,5 7,5 7,5<br /> Lain phat 13,9 14,3 3.7 3,6 3,8 3,8 9,4 9,1<br /> <br /> .\i;iithi: Worid Bank. (*) Cac nam 1994,1995 va 1996 lai suiit cudi ky.<br /> <br /> Cudi nam 1995. Ngan hang Nha nflde ban lech gifla lai suat buy ddng vdn vdi lai suit cho<br /> hhnh Quyet dinh sd 381/QD-NH (28-12-1995) vay khdng qua 0,35% thang. Nam 1996, Ngan<br /> theo dd lai suat tran trd thanh cdng cu dieu hang Nha nUde ban hanh 4 quyet dinh dieu<br /> hanh chinh sach tien te. cd che da lai suat dupe chinh lai suat, eae ngan hang thUdng mai phai<br /> thu hep. Quyet dinh nay cung difa ra mot quy lien tuc dieu chinh trong khi bien dp ciia moi<br /> (tinh niw nhieu tranh cai lue dd la tv le chenh Ian dieu chinh ehi tfl 0.1-0,2"o.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 22 Nghi4n cuV K'nh 14'sd 373 - Thing 6/2009<br />  Diin bien chi sd gia ...<br /> <br /> <br /> BANG 5.3: T o m t a t l a i s u a t t r o n g c a c n a m 1999-2001<br /> <br /> 1999 2000 2001<br /> Thiing trong nam 2 6 10 8 3 6 10<br /> Lai suai co ban (a) 1,1 1,15 0.85 0,75 0.725 0,65 0.6<br /> Lai suai tai cap vdn 1 1 0,5 0,4 0,4<br /> Lai suai cho vay USD (b) 7,5-8,5% nam SIPORE + SIPORE +<br /> Dir trO bat bupe (%) 7 6 5 5 3<br /> <br /> N!,'//w(.Tapchi Ngan hang; Thdi bao Kinh te Viet Nam: Viet Nam-The gidi sd cac nam 1997-1998. 1998-1999,<br /> 1999-2000, 2000-2001 va 2001 -2002.<br /> Ldi suat tinh theo thdng, tril ldi suat ngoai te tinh theo nam. (a) ldi sud't do Ngan hdng Nhd niidc_<br /> qui dinh. Ldi sud't trdn dp dung tii nam 1995. Ldi sud't dp dung d khu viic nong thon cao hon so khu<br /> viic thdnh thi. Cdc hdp tdc xd tin dung co ldi sud't cho vay cao gdp riidi so vdi cdc ngan hdng thMng<br /> mai. Tii nam 2000 dp dung ldi sud't cd ban. Ldi sud't cdc ngan hdng thiidng mat diidc +0,3% vdi cho<br /> vay ngan hqn, 0,35% vdi cho vay ddi hqn, nam 2001 thi +0,5% vdi cho vay ddi hqn. (b) Ldi suat dola<br /> My tinh theo nam. Ldi suat cho vay theo ldi suat tren thi trUdng Sigapore + 1,57c vdi cho vay ngan<br /> hqn, +2,5% vdi cho vay ddi hqn.<br /> <br /> N a m 1999 vdi 5 l l n dieu c h i n h lai s u a t cdn 0,6%)/thang vao t h a n g 10 n a m 2001. Lai<br /> t r i n cho vay, 4 l l n dieu c h i n h lai s u a t t a i s u i t cho vay dfldc gifl theo bien dp +0,3%<br /> cap vdn m a moi l l n nhfl vay bien dp cung vdi n g I n b a n va 0,5% vdi dai b a n .<br /> chi 0,1%). Lai s u a t t i e t k i e m cflng dfldc dieu N a m 2004, da cd d a u hieu lam p h a t trd<br /> c h i n h giam vad cud'i n a m : vdi tien giii lai, mac du vay lai s u a t van difdc gifl on<br /> k h d n g ky b a n chi eon 0 , 1 5 % / t h a n g , ky b a n d i n b ^ T h a n g 7-2004, N g a n h a n g N h a nfldc<br /> 3 t h a n g 0 , 3 % / t h a n g , ky b a n 6 t h a n g q u y e t d i n h v I n gifl n g u y e n lai s u i t ed b a n<br /> 0,45%/thang, ky b a n 1 n a m 0,55%/thang. la 7,5%. Dfl trfl b i t bupe t a n g len la 2% dd'i<br /> Lai s u i t tien giii g i a m nhflng td'ng h u y vdi tien giii cd ky b a n (12 den 24 thang) va<br /> ddng t a n g vao k h o a n g 2 0 % so cud'i n a m 5% dd'i vdi tien giii t h d n g ky b a n va ky b a n<br /> 1998. dfldi 12 t h a n g .<br /> T h a n g 8-2000, N g a n h a n g N h a nfldc T a n g trfldng k i n h te n a m 2004 dat 7,8%,<br /> c h u y e n s a n g dieu h a n h t h e o lai s u a t cd l a m p h a t 9,6% chUa vUdt qua ngUdng cua 2<br /> b a n , h a n g t h a n g cdng b d mflc lai s u a t ed chfl so. Dieu n a y da lam eae n h a dieu h a n h<br /> ban, lai s u a t t a i cap vo'n va lai s u i t t a i chinh sach tien te p h l n nao yen t a m . Sau<br /> chiet k h a u . Cac n g a n h a n g thfldng m a i quy n a m 2005, n a m 2006 l a m p h a t ebi cdn 6,6%<br /> d i n h eae mflc lai s u a t cho vay t h e o bien dp c a n g l a m cho mfle dp tfl tin eae n h a hoach<br /> xoay quanh lai s u i t cd b a n vdi bien dp +0,3%. dinh chinh sach tien te t a n g len. Nhflng dieu<br /> N a m 2 0 0 1 , t i n h h i n h k i n h te t h e gidi<br /> dien bien phfle t a p . Cue Dfl trfl h e n b a n g 7. Xem (VietNamNet 30/06/2004 (G/^T+7)):<br /> H e a Ky (FED) 11 l l n c i t g i a m lai s u a t tfl Trai vdi dir doan ciia nhiSu ngudi, miic lai suai ca<br /> mfle 6,5% d i u t h a n g 1 cdn 1,75% n a m vao ban bang dong Viet Nam duac Ngan hang Nha nudc<br /> cdng bd chieu qua (29/6) da khdng thay ddi. Theo<br /> t h a n g 12, dfldc cdi la t h a p n h a t t r o n g lich<br /> quyet dinh ciia Ngan hang Nha nude, miic lai suai<br /> sfl 40 n a m ciia My. nay duac ap dung tir ngay 1-7-2004 la 7.5'7r/nam<br /> Lai s u i t cd b a n d d n g Viet N a m t r d n g (0,625%/thang). Miic lai suat nay da khdng ddi ke tu<br /> nftm giam 4 l l n tfl 0,75% trflde t h a n g 3-2001, ngay 1-1-2004.<br /> <br /> <br /> Nghi4n cOv Kinh 14 so 373 • Thang 6/2009<br /> 23<br />  Dien bien chi so gid ...<br /> <br /> <br /> nay cd the da gay nen nhflng trd ngai Nhflng ket qua la 2 chfl sd'I Ngay tfl cac<br /> trdng quyet sach khi diin bien nam 2007 thang d i u nam 2008, CPI da tdng vpt thi van<br /> phfle tap hdn la nhflng gi xay ra trong nam de c6 Uu tien kiem che lam phat hay khong<br /> 2006 so vdi nam 2005 va 2004. vIn cdn dang ban thao. Den cud'i thang 3,<br /> Thang 6-2007, lam phat d mfle 5,2 % (sd dau thang 4 thi hang loat bien phap dUdc<br /> vdi thang 12-2006), thi d i u quy 3, Chinh dUa ra vfla manh tay vfla dot ngpt.<br /> phu ra ehi thi kiem che td'c dp tang gia. Thang 3-2008, lai suat ed ban dUde nang<br /> Mac du vay, thai dp lac quan va tfl tin cua tU 8,25% len 8,75%, thang 5 la 12% va cudi<br /> eae nha hoach dinh v I n rat vflng ehle va thang 6 la 14%. Du trfl bat bupe dfldc nang<br /> dUdng nhu chUa san sang cho bat cfl giai len ll%o vdi tien gfli khdng ky ban (va cd ky<br /> phap du manh nao cho kich ban lam phat ban dudi 12 thang) va 5% dd'i vdi tien gfli co<br /> xay ra. Trong eupc bpp bao gifla thang 8- ky ban 12 den 24 thang. Lai suat ciia so'tien<br /> 2007, ngUdi dflng d i u Van phdng Chinh giii nay la l,2%o nam (sau nay ndng len 3,6%<br /> phii khang dinh chu trUdng day manh d i u rdi 5% vd 10%). Phat hanh tin phieu bat bupe<br /> tu de dat td'c dp tang trUdng cad hdn td'c dp 20.300 ty dong, vdi cac ngan hang thUdng<br /> tang gia, Chinh phu cd du nguon lUe de mai lai suat 7,8%) nam. Ap dung mflc tran<br /> kiem soat va khdng cd chuyen tang 2 ehfl cung tin dung va phfldng tien thanh toan<br /> sd' cua CPI trong nam 2007. Vdi nhflng y dfldi 30% ca nam. Dieu chinh ty gia (13.139<br /> kien cho r i n g lam phat cd the len den 10- VND len 16.461 VND/USD, ndi rpng bien dp<br /> 11%). Phe Thdng dd'c Ngan hang Nha nfldc ty gia tfl +/-1% thanh +/- 2% (quyet dinh vao<br /> khang dinh niem tin vao cac giai phap va gifla thang 6 khi ma dong tien Viet Nam<br /> ca eUde la lam phat se khdng the ed 2 ehfl dang bi sut gia manh, cd lue len den tren<br /> sd^ 19.000 VND/USD).<br /> BANG 5.4 : Di§n b i e n lai suat cd ban nam 2008<br /> <br /> Cac thang Thang 11 Thang12<br /> Trirac<br /> thang 3 Dau Cudi Dau Cudi<br /> 3 5 7 10<br /> thang thang thang thang<br /> Lai suai eo ban (*) 8,25 8,75 12 14 13 12 11 10 8,5<br /> Lai suai tai cap vdn 6.5 7,5 15 14 13 12 11 9.5<br /> Lai suai tai chiS^t kha'u 4,5 6 13 12 11 10 9 7,5<br /> <br /> Nfiiion: Ngan hang Nha nude. (*; Lai suai: % theo nam. Cac ngan hang thuang mai cho vay theo lai suai ca ban +<br /> biSndd tdida 150%.<br /> <br /> <br /> Lai suat huy dpng ciia mdt so' ngan hang Cflng nhfl l l n lam phat cud'i nhflng nam<br /> vao cud'i thang 6 d i u thang 7 cung len den 1980, khi lai suat nang cao, ty gia dao dpng<br /> 20% nain trong khi lai s u i t cho vay dflpc t h I t thfldng thi hang Idat ddanh nghiep gap<br /> khd'ng che d mflc 21%/nam. Vdi lai suat nay, khd khan.<br /> Hiep hpi ddanh nghiep d thanh phd' Ho Chi<br /> Minh da kien nghi ha lai s u i t cho vay. Tfl 8. Xem Khdng the cd kich ban lam phat 2 con sd'<br /> thang 9, bat d i u eua qua trinh giam lai (VietNamNet 00:41' 14-8-2007 (GMT-i-7).<br /> suat, luc d i u la than trpng vdi bien dp mdi Ngay 13-8, Van phdng Chinh phii da td chiic hop bao wi<br /> Trien khai Chi thi va kei luan cua Thu tudng ve mot sd<br /> lln giam 1%, den thang 11 ed 2 lln cIt bien phap cap bach ki6m che tdc dd tang gia thi tructng<br /> giam, thang 12 cung vdi 2 l l n cat giam ma vdi su tham dir day du ciia dai dien cac bd nganh chii lire<br /> Ian vao cud'i thang bien dp len den 1,5%). trong "eupc chien" chdng tang gia...<br /> <br /> <br /> 24 Nghien cuv Kinh 14'so 373 • Thing 62009<br />  Dien bien chi so gia ...<br /> <br /> <br /> 'Ldi sud't Viet Nam vd mdt sd niidc<br /> BANG 6.1: Lai s u a t n g a n h a n c u a Viet N a m va m o t so nfl6c<br /> 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br /> Vict Nam 7 6,3 6.7 7.8 7.9 8,9<br /> CPI 4 3 7,8 8,3 7.5 12,6<br /> Thai Lan 1,7 1.3 1,2 2,6 4,6 3,8<br /> CPI 0,6 1,8 2.8 4,5 4,7 2,3<br /> Philippin 7,2 7 7 7.3 7,8 7<br /> CPI 3 3,5 6 7,6 6.2 2.8<br /> Malaixia 3,8 3,8 3,8 3,78 3.53 3.31<br /> CP] 1,8 1 -)<br /> 1.5 3 3.6<br /> Inddnexia 12.9 8,3 7,4 9,2 1 1.6 8,4<br /> CPI 7 11.5 6,8 6,1 10,5 15.4 6,9<br /> Han Qudc 4,2 4 3,6 3.3 4,2 4.8<br /> CPI 2,8 3.5 3,6 2,7 2,2 2.5<br /> Trung Qud'c 2,7 2,7 3.3 3,3 3,3 3.3<br /> CPI -0,8 1,2 3.9 1.8 1,5 4.8<br /> Ni>ii6n: The World Bank: East Asia Testing Time Ahead, April 2008.<br /> Viet Nam: lai suai tidn giri 3 thang, lai suai cho vay thudng cao han khoang Y/c.<br /> <br /> Bang tren che thay lai suat cua Viet Nam the so vdi Inddnexia nflde cd ty le lam phat<br /> cao hdn sd vdi hau bet cac nflde trong khu cao va bat on trong thdi gian khung hoang<br /> vflc. ty lam phat cflng cao hdn. Viet Nam cd kinh te Chau A.<br /> BANG 6.2: Lai s u a t Viet N a m va m o t so nxidc<br /> Nam -2009 Nam 2008 Lam phat cuui ky<br /> 3-4/2009 1/2009 12/2008 10/2008 2008 2009<br /> Hoa Ky 0,25 0,25 1.5 3,1 1,6<br /> EU 1,5-1,25 2 2,5 3,75 2,9 1.7<br /> Nhat Ban 0,1 0,1 0,3 1,9 0.5<br /> Trung Qudc 5,31 5,31 6,66 4,5 5.5<br /> AnDd 5 5,5 6,5 8 9,2 5.1<br /> Inddntixia 7.75-7,5 8,75 9,25 9,5 12 7.5<br /> Malaixia 2 2,5 3,25 7,2 3.3<br /> Philippin 4,75 5 5,5 6 12,2 4.3<br /> Thai Lan 1,5-1,25 2 2.75 3,75 4 3.5<br /> Vict Nam 7 7 8.5 13 25 11<br /> <br /> Ni^iioii: www Icit/insen.info; Lam phat cudi ky theo IMF World Economic Outlook 2008.<br /> <br /> Lai s u i t cac ngan hang thfldng mai tren vao cud'i nam 1989 len den 230"'(i nam! Nhflng<br /> la eua eae Ngan bang Trung fldng mdi nfldc. nam sau dd giam xud'ng cdn khoang SS^o/nam<br /> Lai s u i t chd vay cua cac ngan hang thfldng (1990-1993) va 28% nam (1994-1995). Trong<br /> mai thfldng cao hdn. Vdi Viet Nam ty le cao thdi ky bi anh bfldng khung hoang kinh te<br /> Hon ed the len den ISO"?;). Cudi thang 3, diu Chau A, lai suit giam nhflng trung binh cung<br /> thang 4-2009 nhieu nflde da tiep tuc giam d mfle 14-15% (1998-1999) nam. nam thap<br /> lai suat. nhat cung 11%. Diu nam 2008, khi lai suit ed<br /> • Ldi sud't qud cao ban len H^/'o thi lai suit ngan hang thfldng<br /> Nhin ehung lai suit ma cac ngan hang cho mai len den 21%, vao cud'i nam luc dieu chinh<br /> doanh nghiep vay la rat cao. Dinh cao lai suat giam eon 8,5";) thi lai suit eae ngan hang cung<br /> <br /> Nghien cuv Kinh 14 so 373 - Thing 6 2009 25<br />  Dien bien chi so gia ...<br /> <br /> <br /> d vao mflc 12,5% nam. ciia ngan hang rat cao, nii ro tin dung Idn va<br /> Vdi lai s u i t trung binh 12-15% nam, ndi lo sd ciia cac nha hpach dinh chinh sach ve<br /> trong Iflc nen kinh te van hanh binh thfldng sfl sup do ciia he tho'ng ngan hang.<br /> thi khd cd the cd ldi nhuan trong boat kinh Cac nguyen nhan tren cd van de lich sii<br /> doanh ngoai trfl kinh doanh ngan hang. va ket cau vdn cho vay cua he thdng ngan<br /> Dieu dd giai thich vi sao cd qua nhieu bo sd hang qud'c doanh: tap trung cho cac doanh<br /> xin thanh lap mdi ngan hang, va cd qua nghiep nha nfldc va cho vay theo chi dinh.<br /> nhieu ngan hang tfl ehflc nang ngan hang Nhflng tinh binh hien nay da thay ddi,<br /> ndng tbdn dfldc chuyen thanh ngan hang nhieu ngan bang mdi dfldc thanh lap, ed ca<br /> thfldng mai va chuyen ludn tru sd chinh. chi nbanh cua ngan hang nflde ngdai. Lai<br /> Cac tong cdng ty, tap doan nha nfldc va cac s u i t cao la mdn qua tang cho cac ngan bang<br /> "dai gia" tfl nhan tranh thu de xin cd ngan mdi, ngan hang nfldc ngdai, ngan hang lien<br /> bang trong tap doan cua minh. doanh. Nd kich thich manh viec xin thanh<br /> Lai suit cao ehi xuat bien tfl cao diem lap ngan hang mdi.<br /> ebdng lam phat trong cac nam 1989-1992. Lai suat cao la rao can dd'i vdi cac doanh<br /> Trflde dd thi lai suit ngan hang vo'n rat thip, nghiep nhd khi tiep can vdn nhflng lai kich<br /> gpi la lai suit bao cap bdi ehi danh eho doanh thich dd vdn vao cac nganh d i u ed nhfl<br /> nghiep nha nflde (va Chinh phu). Lai suit cao chflng khdan, bat ddng san.<br /> trong nhieu nam sau lam phat nam 1986 lien 3. T a c d o n g ciia gia lu'ofng thtfc den<br /> quan den chinh sach gifl lai suat tiet kiem chi so gia t i e u d u n g<br /> cao. Nhflng nguyen nhan Idn nhat la chi phi 3.1. LUdng thuc vd thUc pham<br /> HINH 7: Chi so gia h a n g tieu d u n g , chi so' gia lifofng thvfc v a c h i so gia thufc p h a m<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br /> — • — CPI • Chi s6 gi^ iLTcyng thi.i'C — A — ChF s6 gi^ thyc ph^m<br /> <br /> <br /> Nguon: Nien giam thdng ke.<br /> Lam phat cao trong nhflng nam 80 ed thfldng xuyen Id viec dieu hanh chuyen chd<br /> phln rat Idn tfl gia Ifldng thflc. San x u l t yeu Ifla gao tfl Nam ra Bic. Mac dfl tap trung<br /> kem la nguyen nhan d i u tien eua tinh trang nhfl vay nhflng tinh trang thieu gao d mien<br /> eang thing, nhflng tinh trang e l t khue Iflu Bac van thfldng xuyen xay ra. O thanh phd<br /> thdng hang hda da day gia lua gao len cao d Ho Chi Minh va eae tinh mien Nam, vao<br /> khu vflc thanh thi va d mien Bic trong khi nhflng thang cao diem dd boat dpng xuat<br /> gia lua lai rat thap d DBSCL''. Trong nhflng khau thfldng bi dinh dd'n do flu tien tau bien<br /> nam cang thing dd, viec dieu hang lua gao<br /> de mien Bac khdng bi cai ddi la cdng viec he<br /> 9. Bang chung la san lirpng lirong thi/c (qui thdc) binh<br /> trpng cua Chinh phii. quan dau ngudi tiing (nam 1977 la 250 kg, nam 1980 la<br /> Hang nam, vao luc thu hoach rp lua gao d 268 kg, nam 1985 la 304 kg va 1989 la 332 kg) nhimg gia<br /> DBSCL, Chinh phu cii mdt phd thii tfldng Ilia gao van lien tuc tang.<br /> <br /> <br /> 26 Nghi4n cuv Kinh teso3'/3 - Thing 6/2009<br />  Dien bien chi so gia<br /> <br /> <br /> cho viec chuyen chd lua gao. Gia nhan cdng hoc thflc chi tang 300 nghin tan so nam 19S9 va<br /> xep. gia van chuyen cung tang vpt len, nhflng tinh tren diu ngfldi cbi dat 325 kg. thap bdn<br /> gia lua gao d DBSCL van thIp va ndng dan Cdn so'332kg cua nam 1989.<br /> cflng khdng may tha thiet vdi viec trdng lua. Cac nam 1992, 1993, san Ifldng Ifldng thflc<br /> Tfl kbi chinh sach quan ly Ifldng thflc thay gia tang manh trd lai (binh quan tren mot<br /> ddi cho phep xuat k b i u gao d mien Nam, lua trieu tan mdi nam) gia lua gao giam, CPI chi<br /> gao dfldc Iflu thdng binh thfldng gifla cac tinh tang 17,5%o va sau dd la 5,2%. thIp hdn<br /> vdi eae tinh va tfl Nam ra Ble thi tinh trang nhieu so cac nam triide.<br /> cang thang giam dim, san xuat tang vpt vii Nam 1994, xay ra tinh hinh lu lut va mat<br /> cflng khdng can phai ed mdt phd thu tfldng va mfla trong \ai he thu d DBSCL. nhieu hdp<br /> tbfl trudng Bp Giao thong tuc trfle dieu tau dong xuat khau bi dinh hoan do khdng cd<br /> va cung khdng phai nhap khau gao. Nam bang giao, CPI rrong eae thang euo'i nam 1994<br /> 1989. lan dau tien Viet Nam xult khau 1,4 va cho den diu nam 1995 da tang rat manh.<br /> trieu tan gao thu ve tren 300 trieu USD. Cd CPI 2 nam nay da tang trd lai vdi 2 chu' so'.<br /> Ilia gao dfl tbfla de xuat khau da giam bdt ap • San liidng liidng thiic tdng, gia lua gqo<br /> lue tang gia. va cung cd them ngoai te de can gidm, CPI gidm<br /> ddi nhap khau phan bdn va mot so'bang tieu Cac nam!996 den 2000. san Ifldng ludng<br /> dung thiet yeu ap Iflc tang gia giam bdt. CPI thflc tang rat manh, trung binh 1.7 trieu tan<br /> nam 1989 tang 34,7% thap hdn rat nhieu so nam, rieng nam 1996 tang 1,8 trieu tan, nam<br /> vdi mfle 3 chfl so cua 3 nam trflde dd. 1999 tang gan 2,4 'rieu tan. Trong khi dd<br /> • San liidng liidng thiic gidm, gid lua gqo xuat khiu tang trung binh ehi vao khoang<br /> tang, CPI tang 270 nghin tan/nam. Tac ddng eua xuat khiui<br /> Hai nam 1990 va 1991. CPI tang trd lai d lua gao den giii trong nfldc phan anh kha ro<br /> mfle 67"o cflng cd nguyen nhan tfl mat mfla d ke tfl khi Viet Nam tham gia xuat khiui va<br /> mien Ble (san ludng Ifldng thfle vflng DBSH chiu tac dpng gifi ca cflng nhfl tinh hinh cung<br /> nam 1990 giam gin 650 nghin tin). Binh clu thi trfldng lua gao qudc te.<br /> quan mdi nam trong 2 nam nay san Ifldng 3.2. Anh hiidng ciia xuat khau lua gqo<br /> HINH 8: X u a t khiiu gao, gia x u a t k h a u va gia lua t r o n g nfldc h a n g thang tii n a m<br /> 1989-2000<br /> 1000<br /> goo<br /> 800 1<br /> 700 • • • " V<br /> 600 \<br /> 500<br /> 400<br /> 300<br /> 200<br /> ICO<br /> 0 ;;;iio .1. t><br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> m^ SA l u a n g XK — - Gia XK gao 25% Gia thoc<br /> <br /> <br /> licp hoi xuai khau hrang liurc \'iet Nam. tac gia thu thap va \u l\. Xu.it kluiii: 1,000 i.in. giii Mirii:<br /> /V!,'(/('/;'<br /> L'.SD/taii; gia liui lOddng/kg<br /> Cae phan tich cho thay, trong thdi diem thfldng tap trung vao luc nay (c.-ic thang<br /> vu Ddng Xuan gia lua gao trong nflde thap. mfla khd den dau mfla nufa). Khi thcd vu<br /> gi.-i xuat khIu thap, Ifldng xuat khau Idn ddng xuan qua di. gia lua luit dau nhiVh len.<br /> <br /> 27<br /> Nghien CM Kmh le so 373 • Thing 6 2009<br />  Dien bien chi so gia<br /> <br /> <br /> gia xuat khau cung tang d i n cho den cud'i cung dat gia mua thap vao luc nay. Thieu he<br /> nam. thdng kho chfla va tin dung cho ndng dan<br /> Cae cdng ty xuat khau do ehay ehi tieu sd cung nhfl cho cac cdng ty kinh doanh lua gao<br /> Ifldng va tin dung cung thfldng tranh thii ky la diem yeu keo dai trong sud't thap ky 90. Hai<br /> hdp dong b;'\n ngay tfl diu vu, eae nha nhap diem \-e'u nay eho den nay can ban van chfla<br /> khau cung hieu rd ban che ve kho chfla va tin khac phiic dfldc. khong chi ban ehe nang Iflc<br /> dung eua cac doanh nghiep trong nflde neu canh tranh nganh lua gad ma cdn thiet hai<br /> khong ed hdp dong va tin dung tbfl (L/C) nen cho xuat khau va ndng dan.<br /> HINH 9.1: San xuat, xuat khau, gia xuat khau va gia noi dia nam 1989-2008<br /> <br /> so lucyng - tan gia gao XK, gia lua<br /> 700<br /> 6000<br /> <br /> <br /> 5000<br /> <br /> <br /> 4000 '•<br /> <br /> <br /> .3000<br /> 2000<br /> <br /> <br /> 1000<br /> <br /> <br /> -i l-J-l 0<br /> 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br /> I San xuat i j Xuat khau — * — G i a XK — • — G i a lua<br /> <br /> <br /> N:.;iioii: 1Y)ng cue TTioiig ke. Hiep hdi MuVt khau lurtig thuc. thdng ke gia liia gao ciia mdt so cdng ty xuai khau gao va ciia<br /> tac giii.<br /> Doll \ i tinh: .Siin .\u;il: 10.000 t;in; ,\uiil kh;iu: liin. giii ,\uiit khiiu USD/t;in. giii lua trong nirdc: 10 dong/kg.<br /> <br /> <br /> • Gid liia gqo vd thay ddi cd cdu nuia vu tich eho den bien nay. Vdi vu thu ddng (vu<br /> 3) la mot nguon bd sung quan trpng ed eau<br /> Triidc khi ed viec xuat khau thi gia lua<br /> thu hoach trong nam, vdi nhieu khuyen<br /> gao do Nha nflde thu mua rat thap'". Tfl khi<br /> nghi dfldc dfla ra yeu eau ndng dan khdng<br /> xuat khIu dfldc gad (nam 1989) gia Ifla gad<br /> nen gieo trong, dien tich va san Iflpng deu<br /> tiing nicUih kich thich trdng trpt, gia tang<br /> giam trong nhflng nam g i n day.<br /> ,-;;in ludng lua gao. Nhu'ng nam d i u thap ky<br /> Sfl phan bd lai cd eau mfla vu trong ca<br /> 90, tinh hinh san xuat chfla on dinh, trong<br /> nfldc cflng da lam eho ket eau Ifldng thflc<br /> do eo mot so nam bi mat mua, ehi sau nam<br /> trdng nam thay ddi. Lua gao gan nhfl cd<br /> 1995 nidi di vao on dinh va gia tang deu<br /> quanh nam. Neu trflde kia ehi tap trung<br /> diin. Cung tir dd gi.a Ifla khong tiing, tham<br /> mfle dp dfl tbfla cao diem trong thdi vu ddng<br /> chi giiini nluf \no eae nam 2000-2003.<br /> xuan, thieu hut xay ra neu ed ehi d cudi vu<br /> Do thuan ldi ve thdi tiet, ddng xuan trd he thu thi tfl sau nam 1995 b i n nhfl khung<br /> thiinh vu san x u l t chinh d DBSCL, chiem cdn.<br /> den gan 1/2 san lupng lua ca nam. He thu la<br /> VII lu;i nhieu riii ro. chi phi cao va chi chiem<br /> ty le thap d DBSCL, nhflng do tae dpng eiia 10. Ni'im 1988 gia 1 kg liia trung binh lii 185 ddng.<br /> niiin 1989 la 370 ddng. nam 199(ri;i 650 ddng, niim<br /> gii'i Cii nen d;"! tiing dan ve dien tich va san<br /> 1991 la 1290 ddng. nam 1992 lii 1.094 ddng. Trong ciic<br /> lupng. den nam 1995 da chiem hpn 40% dien ni'im 1985-1990 liia v;i viii lu tlurdng dupe theo ty le<br /> tich vii s;in Ifldng va tiep tuc gia tang dien thdng thudng 1 kg uie = 3 kg lua.<br /> <br /> <br /> 28 Nghi4n cuV Kinh te so 373 • Tiling 6/2009<br />  Dien bien chi so gia<br /> <br /> <br /> Sfl thay doi cd cau mfla vu lam thay ddi gao tren thi trfldng the gidi tang tfl gifla<br /> qui luat gia ca Ifldng thflc. Lam phat it xay ra nam 2007, da kee gia lua gad trdng nude<br /> dd tae dpng gia Ifla nhfl cac nam trflde nam tang vpt len theo da tac ddng dang ke den<br /> 1995, va cflng khd xay ra tai cac thdi diem CPI trong nam 2007 va 6 thang dau nam<br /> "giap hat" nhfl nhflng nam chfla on dinh. Gia 2008. Vao cae thang cud'i nam 2008, gia gao<br /> Ifla gao t h a p da keo cbi so' gia t h a p xud'ng tren thi trfldng the gidi ha nhiet. gia trong<br /> trong nhieu nam tfl nam 1996 den nam nflde cung giam theo, thi CPI cflng ha nhiet<br /> 2003. Tuy nhien gia lua thap keo dai lai gay theo.<br /> nen nhflng tac ddng khac. Dien tich trong 3.3. Gid lUdng thUc vd thuc pham<br /> Ilia nam 2003 giam so vdi nam 2002, va tfl Cac lln ebi sd gia tang cao cung nhfl<br /> dd den nam 2007 dien Ifla cua nam sau deu giam nbanh deu gin sfl thay dd'i eua ebi sd<br /> giam di so nam nam trflde. San Ifldng lua gia Ifldng thflc, thflc pham. Thdi diem trflde<br /> sau kbi dat dinh cao vao nam 2004 (36,15 nam 2000, dao dpng cua chi sd gia Ifldng<br /> trieu tin) thi cac nam tiep theo giam. Chinh thfle manh, sau nam 2001 ehi sd thflc pham<br /> trong bd'i canh dd, nhu clu the gidi tang, gia bien dpng manh bdn.<br /> HINH 9.2: CPI va gia \\idng Ivfofng thxic, thflc p h a m h a n g t h a n g cac nam 1996,1997,1998,<br /> 1999 va 2000<br /> Chi so giS Chung (CPI) va chi so gia lu-ong thi/c, thyc pham 96,97.98,99 va 2000<br /> 106 ,<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> HiNH 9.3: CPI va gia Ifldng Ifldng thvlc, thflc p h a m h a n g t h a n g cac n a m tfl 2004 den 2008<br /> CPI, lircTiig thirc va Ihire pham nam 2004- 2008<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> CPI » Chi so gia l i f o n g t h y c -Chi so gia t h y c pham<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> 4.,_,. *\,«_^-v*^<br /> Tl T4 T7 T10 Nam T3 T6 T9 T12 T2 T5 T8 T11<br /> J, T4 T7 T10 Nam T3 T6 Til<br /> 2007<br /> 2005<br /> <br /> Ni;iidii: Nien giiim thdng ke.<br /> Ch. sd giii hrcrng thuc tang nhanh. giam cung riit nhanh, chi sd giii thuc phiim khi tang cung kha nhanh den kh.<br /> giam lai giam nit it.<br /> <br /> 29<br /> Nghi4n cM Kinh 14 so 373 • Thing 6.2009<br />  Diin bien chi so gia ...<br /> <br /> <br /> Cac lln CPI tang cad thi gia Ifldng thflc san cd xu hfldng giam xud'ng, trong khi gia<br /> cflng tang r i t cao, khi giam thi gia Ifldng hang cdng nghiep (trao doi vdi ndng nghiep)<br /> thflc giam manh. Vdi thflc pham cung tang tang len dan den bat ldi cho ndng nghiep. Md<br /> r I t nhanh khi CPI tang, nhflng khi CPI rpng quan he nay la nhflng ngfldi ndng dan,<br /> giam thi gia thflc pham giam r I t it. Nam la khu vflc ndng tbdn so vdi khu vflc dd thi<br /> 2008, Tdng cue Thd'ng ke tinh toan them chi ludn ludn bi thiet thdi.<br /> sd an udng ngoai gia dinh, thi cung cd hien<br /> Gbi nhan tfl so' lieu thd'ng ke ve ehi so' gia<br /> tfldng chi Sd nay giam rat it trong cac thang<br /> tfl nam 1976 den nam 1986 cho tbiy, trong<br /> cud'i nam, ngay ca khi CPI hang thang am.<br /> khi chi so' gia Ifldng thflc nam 1986 tang so<br /> Tren thflc te thi rat nhieu dich vu, trong dd<br /> vdi nam 1976 la 115 l l n thi ehi so'gia vat tfl<br /> cd an udng khi da tang gia thi h l u nhfl<br /> ndng nghiep tang len den 175 lln.<br /> khdng giam gia trd lai.<br /> Nam 2000, Tong cue Thd'ng ke dfla vao<br /> Cac nam 2003-2007 thfldng xay ra dich<br /> tinh toan chi so' gia ban san pham ciia ngfldi<br /> benh gia sue. Chi se' gia thfle pham tang kha<br /> san xuat hang cdng nghiep va san xuat hang<br /> cad, cd nhflng pha tang vpt, nhflng kbi giam<br /> ndng nghiep, thi gia hang ndng nghiep tang<br /> rIt it, phan anh ed cau san xuat khdng vflng<br /> nhanh hdn so bang cdng nghiep. Dieu nay<br /> chae eua ndng nghiep. Cflng trong cac nam<br /> mdt p h l n la do gia hang ndng nghiep nhfl<br /> ndi tren, gia Ifldng thflc kha on dinh trong thdi<br /> lua gao vdn da rat thap trong cac nam 1998-<br /> ky diu, nhflng lai bien ddng dfl dpi trong<br /> 2001 nen da tang trd lai. Vdi bang cdng<br /> nam 2008, trong tinh trang khdng thieu hut,<br /> nghiep mac du cflng thap trong cae nam<br /> eho thay he thdng phan phd'i yeu kem.<br /> giam phat, nhflng da trong ehiidi gia tang<br /> 3.4. Gid canh keo nhieu nam, nen cac nam sau tang cham hdn<br /> Ly thuyet ve gia canh keo cho rang gia nong Sd vdi bang ndng nghiep.<br /> HINH 10.1: Chi so gia Ifldng thiic va vat txi nong nghiep tii n a m 1976-1986 (nam 1976=100)<br /> 800<br /> 700<br /> 600<br /> 500<br /> • Ll/Ong thifc . Vat It/ nong ngtiiep<br /> 400<br /> 300<br /> 200<br /> 100<br /> <br /> 1978 1960 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986<br /> <br /> <br /> HINH 10.2: Chi so gia ban san p h a m cua ngufcri san xuat hang cong nghiep va ciia nong nghiep<br /> 180<br /> <br /> 170<br /> <br /> 160<br /> <br /> 150<br /> <br /> 140<br /> <br /> 130<br /> <br /> 120<br /> <br /> 110<br /> -Chi s6 gi^ Chung C N -Chi s6 gi^ Chung NoN<br /> 100<br /> 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br /> <br /> Nguon: Nien giam tho'ng ke.<br /> <br /> 30 Nghi4n cM Kinh 14 s6 373 • Thing 6/2009<br />  Dien bien chi so gia<br /> <br /> <br /> Thflc te chd thiy khdng the cd chuyen 1996, gia cua cac mat hang ndng nghiep tang<br /> hang cdng nghiep cfl tang mai, hang ndng nbanh hdn sd cae mat bang edng nghiep.<br /> san lai giam mai. Tang mai thi khdng cd Nhflng sfl thay ddi gia gifla nam 2003 so vdi<br /> ngitdi mua. giam mai thi khdng cd ngfldi nam 1991, thi ty le tang cua mdt sd hang<br /> trdng. Chae chan la cd eae pha dieu chinh, va ndng nghiep cham hdn so bang cdng nghiep.<br /> thfldng thi cac pha dieu chinh de lai d cac Neu so sanh sfl thay doi nam 2003 so vdi<br /> eupc lam phat. nam 1996, thi h l u bet bang ndng nghiep<br /> Bang 7 cho t h I y , tfl nam 1991 den nam cham hdn so bang cdng nghiep.<br /> BANG 7: Gia ban le mot so mat hang hoa thiet yeu tfl 1991-2003<br /> Clia cac nam So sanh<br /> 1991 1992 1995 1996 1999 2000 2003 1996/1991 2003/1991 2003/1996<br /> Thoc te (d/kg) 1,291 1.094 1.957 2.031 2.250 1.853 2.110 1,57 1,63 1,04<br /> Thit Ion (d/kg) 10.519 15.265 22.972 22.734 24.139 22.937 27.642 2,16 2,63 1,22<br /> Ga thit (d/kg) 9.369 13.985 21.409 22.822 24.782 24.286 24.415 2,44 2,61 1,07<br /> Ca chep (d/kg) 5,974 10.667 15.450 17.247 17.655 17.161 20.891 2,89 3,50 1,21<br /> Mudi (d/kg) 649 672 1.128 1.101 1.249 1.225 1.527 1,70 2,35 1,39<br /> <br /> Mi chinh (d/kg) 18.926 19.510 22,851 24.147 28.600 26.000 25.496 1,28 1.35 1,06<br /> <br /> Vai bong {dim) 3.469 5.156 6,233 7.207 9.477 9.102 9.517 2,08 2,74 1,32<br /> <br /> Giay Viet (d/tap) 686 1.046 1.429 1.546 1.680 1.831 1.959 2,25 2,86 1,27<br /> <br /> Xang (d/l) 2.628 2.416 3.382 3.661 4.330 4.690 5.176 1,39 1,97 1,41<br /> <br /> Dien (d/kwh) 265 468 520 519 596 597 691 1,96 2,61 1,33<br /> <br /> Nguiiii: NiC'n giiim iliong ke.<br /> <br /> <br /> Lam phat la nhflng l l n dieu chinh lam cua nong dan khdng dfldc cai thien, do giii<br /> tang manh gia hang Ifldng thflc, thflc pham, Ifldng thflc thap, thi sflc mua cua bp giam.<br /> dfldng nhfl dd la sfl dieu chinh nhflng meo Neu san xuat cdng nghiep tiep tuc gia tang<br /> md trong ed elu gia hang cdng nghiep va se din den cung vfldt clu. O vao tinh trang<br /> ndng nghiep. nay, neu cd them tae dpng nao khiie tfl chinb<br /> Chflng nao ma sfl trao dd'i gifla khu vflc sach tien te. tac dpng tfl ben ngoai vao, deu<br /> cdng nghiep vdi khu vflc ndng nghiep cdn cd the dan den giam phat.<br /> hdp ly, cac md'i tfldng quan, cae ty le hinh Gia Ifldng thflc thIp, thu nhap ndng dan<br /> thanh cac ben chap nhan dfldc thi chfla xay thap se cd nhieu ngfldi hdn rdi bd dong ruong.<br /> ra lam phat. Ngflde lai, neu khu vflc ndng nganh trong cay Ifldng thflc it dfldc quan<br /> nghiep bi thiet thdi va kee dai, thi nguy cd tam, san Ifldng giam. Gia Ifldng thflc thap se<br /> bflng nd lam phat xuat hien. Mei lln x u l t khuyen khich cae nganh edng nghiep sfl<br /> hien lam phat deu cd sfl dieu chinh lai gia ca dung nhieu Ifldng thflc bdn eho che bien.<br /> Ifldng thflc va thfle pham so gia hang cdng hoac lam thfle an gia sflc, chan nudi phat<br /> nghiep. trien va nhu clu (tfldng lai) vdi Ifldng thflc<br /> Liim phat nam 1986 hay lam phat nam tang. Trong trfldng hdp nay neu cd yen td tae<br /> 2008, deu la hdi tu cua nhieu yeu to, nhflng dpng tfl ben ngoai, nhu clu the gidi gia tang.<br /> lan nao cung cd mdt yeu td Ifldng thflc. Dieu gia tren thi trfldng the gidi gia tang, gia<br /> nay d i n den md'i quan he khac lien quan Ifldng thflc trong nflde se tang va se tac dpng<br /> den chi sd CPI (trfldng hdp nam 1999, 2004).<br /> den chinb sach gia Ifldng thflc. Khi thu nhap<br /> <br /> Nghien CM Kmh I4 so 373 • Thang 6/2009 31<br />  Diin bien chi so gia<br /> <br /> <br /> Neu cd them tac dpng tfl tien te, tham hut 4. Mot so' tom tat va nhan xet<br /> ngan sach, cu sdc tfl ben ngoai - gia nhien • Ty gid dnh hiidng Idn den hoqt dgng<br /> lieu gia tang, thi lam phat trong nfldc se xuat nhap khdu vd cdn cdn thiidng mqi<br /> bung len. Dd la trfldng hdp nam 2008 va ke Ty gia thap (dong ndi te cao gia) trong cac<br /> ca vao nam 1986. nam 1986-1988 cung la nhflng nam xuat<br /> Dieu rut ra dfldc tfl 2 eupc lam phat la khau (vdi khu vflc thanh toan bang USD)<br /> bat ky nhflng ap dat nao tfl chinh sach yeu, tham hut thfldng mai rat Idn. Sfl thay<br /> nbIm kiem ehe gia Ifldng thflc va sfl thieu ddi ty gia vao nam 1988 va tiep tuc trong cac<br /> quan tam eua Nha nflde vao d i u tfl eho ndng nam sau dd thi xuat khau cflng tang rat<br /> nghiep. ndng tbdn. deu nglm chfla nhflng manh va tham hut thfldng mai giam dang ke.<br /> bat on do lam phat va giam phat va di ngflde Sfl thay doi rat an tfldng la vao nam 1989, khi<br /> lai muc tieu an ninh Ifldng thflc qud'c gia. lln diu tien ed thang dfl thfldng mai.<br /> <br /> HINH 11: Ty gia vdi x u a t k h a u , n h a p k h a u va can can t h a n h t o a n tii n a m 1988-2008<br /> Can can V L , XK rong (%) T i gia V N D / U S D<br /> 150,0<br /> 18000<br /> 16000<br /> <br /> 14000<br /> <br /> ! 12000<br /> <br /> i 10000<br /> <br /> 8000<br /> <br /> 1993 2d'00 * 2002 2004 .,A 200<br /> 6000<br /> <br /> 4000<br /> <br /> I Nh$p khau I Can c a n V L 2000<br /> -Tygia VND/USD<br /> 0<br /> <br /> ,Vi,'/(,)//,' Nien giiim thoiig ke. IMF. Gin ciin vang lai (%) so GDP; XK (%) so (XK-NK)/XK, ty giii VND/USD euoi ky.<br /> <br /> <br /> Ni^m 1992. ty gia USD giam so vdi nam nhflng nam nay dfldc dfla vad ludng vdn tfl<br /> 1991 va dflpc neo gifl quanh mdc 11.000 ben ngeai gay ra khdang tham but Idn. Tinh<br /> VND/USD den 1996, thi xuat khau tang trang nhfl vay la khdng the keo dai. Suy<br /> cham hon so nhap khau. nhap sieu tang vpt, tbdai trong cac nam 1998-20001 da lam<br /> can can vang lai cung tham hut Idn. Trong giam tham hut nhap sieu va thang dfl vdi<br /> cue n:\in iinh hfldng eua khung hoang kinh can can vang lai. Chinb sach tien te khdng<br /> td Chau A (1997-1999). ty gia dfldc dieu du linh hoat xfl ly cac van de vi md trong<br /> chmb, xuat khau tang cham lai, nhflng thdi ky tang trfldng thi suy thoai kinh te tac<br /> nhap khau tham cbi khdng tang, nhap sieu dpng lap lai can bang.<br /> giam, can can vang lai ed nam thang dfl. Tinh binh tfldng tfl diin ra trong nam<br /> Nhflng nam ty gia tfldng dd'i on dinh nhfl 2008 vdi bieu do tinh theo thang. Cac thang<br /> 2003, 2004, 2007, cflng la nhflng nam nhap d i u nam nhap khau tang manh hdn xuat<br /> sieu Idn. can can vang lai tham but. khau, nhap sieu Idn, cflng la nhflng thang ty<br /> Hinh 11 cdn cho thay. tham but can gia t h I p . Sfl thay dd'i ty gia tfl thang 6 cung<br /> ihiinh toan va nhap sieu rat Idn trong cac la lue nhap khau tang cham lai, nhap sieu<br /> n;im 1993 diiw 1996. T.ang trfldng cad trdng gilm.<br /> <br /> 32 Nghi4n cuV Kinh 14'so 373 - Thing 6'2009<br />  Dien bien chi so gia ...<br /> <br /> <br /> H I N H 12: D i e n b i e n x u a t k h a u , n h a p k h a u , n h a p s i e u v a t y g i a c a c t h a n g n a m 2008<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Cd nhieu yeu to' t a c ddng den x u l t k h a u , k h a n , dflng trflde nguy cd p h a san va l/.i<br /> n h a p kbiiu va can c a n t h a n h t o a n v a n g lai trong s d ' l y da ngflng boat dpng ".<br /> ehfl k h d n g chi duy n h a t yeu td'ty gia, nhflng Chung eupc thi t a n g trfldng kinh te ni,im<br /> Ciic so' lieu va b i n h a n h t r e n t r o n g k h o a n g 2008 ehi d a t 6,2% t h a p hdn ca eon sd ky vong<br /> thdi gian dai k h d n g h e la sfl trflng hdp n g l u 6,5% cua Chinh phu, sau kbi dii dieu chinb<br /> nhien. tfl 8,5-9%. T a n g trfldng kinh te tinh theo quy.<br /> thi quy 4 d a t t h a p n b i t (5,4','o). C.oi giai phap<br /> • Ldi sud't: lieu thud'c mqnh chdng Iqm<br /> kich c l u 1 ty USD ma Chinh phfl dfla ra dfldi<br /> phdt, siic cdng phat cung ciic Idn<br /> hinh thflc bu lai s u i t \"'». ve thflc chat la<br /> Lai s u a t la cdng cu cd t a c d u n g m a n h<br /> bang bd vet thfldng eho cac doanh nghiep hi<br /> n h a t chd'ng l a m p h a t da dfldc a p d u n g cac ton thfldng nghiem trpng qua e;ic bien phaj-i<br /> n:'im 1986-1990, va mot l l n nfla dfldc ap chdng lam p h a t 6 t h a n g d i u nam.<br /> d u n g d i u n a m 2008 da gdp p h l n kiem che<br /> • Ldi sudtqud cao<br /> lam p h a t trong cae t h a n g cud'i n a m . Nhflng<br /> Lai s u i t m a cac n g a n b a n g cho doanh<br /> trong ca 2 l l n deu gay n e n ton thfldng r a t<br /> nghiep vay la r a t cao. Khdng cbi la cao trong<br /> Idn dd'i vdi n e n k i n h te.<br /> Iflc chdng lain p h a t (nam 1989-1992. gifla<br /> P h a i m a t 2 n a m s a u n a m 1989 (nam lai n a m 2008) m a cflng cao khi nen kinh te boat<br /> s u i t t a n g vpt d e n 10% t h a n g ) , kbi lai s u a t dpng b i n h thfldng, cao so vdi nhieu nflde<br /> trd lai binh thfldng n e n k i n h te mdi phuc trong k h u vflc.<br /> hdi. nhflng t i n h t r a n g np n i n long vdng eua Lai s u i t cao cflng khuyen khieh ng.an<br /> (•lie edng ty eon hoat ddng vdi edng ty m a t b a n g day m a n h cho vay, do dd gia tang tin<br /> kha n a n g t h a n h toan (thfle chat la khdng d u n g 6 at. Dieu dd da xay ra vao cudi nam<br /> cdn boat ddng) da trd t h a n h g a n h n a n g n i u 2007 d a u n a m 2008. Lai s u i t cao cung<br /> kee nhieu n.am. Dieu n a y cflng lap lai vae khdng k h u y e n khich cac n g a n h a n g noi<br /> gifla cudi n a m 2008. c h u n g day m a n h cac dich vu ma chi tap<br /> Lieu tbude chdng l a m p h a t da n g a m . lam t r u n g Viio cho vay.<br /> p h a t da dflde kiem che thi n e n k i n h te cflng<br /> 11. \'NNJ/.(/.i' (:j'iO!2i^OS iCMT + ^r 20'/i doanh<br /> thiVm ddn. I h m g loat d o a n h nghiep khdng<br /> nghiep dimg triroe ngii> en phii s.m. Con so tliiy quan<br /> chiu ndi hii s u i t vay 21 "../nam. Theo d a n g ngiii na> dupe Hieji hoi Doanh nghiep nho y.i vira<br /> gia eua Hiep hot d o a n h n g h i e p nbd va vfla, (DNNVV) edng bo t:ii Dien dan Doanh ngliie|) NIMII<br /> thi den t h i n g 9 ed d e n 20"i. sd d o a n h nghiep hiine - Chirng khoiin cung lh,in g' Idn, cae "dai gia" trong lang kinh<br /> ehi sd tiing gia cao n h a t thfldng rdi vao<br /> doanh b;i't dpng san, chflng khoan.<br /> t h a n g 2, ke den la t h a n g 1, t h i n g 12 va<br /> Van de dfldng nhfl phfle tap hdn kbi lai t h a n g 11, mot so trfldng hdp k h a c la t h a n g<br /> suiVt ed the lai la tae nhan thuc day lam 5 va t h i i n g 10. Chi s o ' t a n g gid t h I p thfldng<br /> phiit cao bdn chfl khdng chi cd viec kiem vao cac t h a n g 7, t h a n g 6 va thiing 9 va<br /> ehe. Khi lam phat xay ra, lai s u i t dfldc thang 10".<br /> nang len de ebdng lam phat, nhflng khi<br /> lam phat giam ma van duy tri chinh sach<br /> 12. Tir nam 1986 dcii nam 2008 (23 niim) thi eo 16<br /> lili suiit tiet kiem cao, lai s u i t tin dung cao lan chi sd tilng gid cao nhat viio qui 1. 4 h'in vao qui IV, 2<br /> thi dd lii rao can n.ang Iflc canh tranh cua liln lii qui II, Ifin con liii ,\en ke nhung khong thupc ve<br /> doanh nghiep Viet Nam so cae nflde. qui 111. Qui I Vii qui IV co chi sd tiing giii eao nhiVt. qui<br /> III thucrng cd chi sd tiing giii thap nhiii<br /> Liii s u i t la d i u vao. loai d i u vao thiet Tir nam 1993 den ni"im 2008. 16 nimi. thi thiing 2 cd<br /> yeu eua tat ca doanh nghiep. Vdi ehi phi 12 liin ed chi sd giii tiing cao nhiii. 3 liin liing cao thiJf hiii<br /> dau vao cao thi khdng the cd gid thanh Vii 1 liin tiing cao thii bii. Thiing 1 c() 1 h'in ehi sd timg<br /> cao nhiii. 9 kin chi sd tiing cao thu hai. 3 liin chi sd tiing<br /> thap de niing cao nang lue canh tranh cao thu ba. 3 li"in chi sd tang cao thuf tu. Thiing 12 cu 2<br /> (lude te. Vdi loiii chi phi dau vao (nhfl lai liin ehi sd tiing cao nhiit. 2 liin chi sd liing cao tliir hiii. 4<br /> suiit) thfldng xuyen cd ap Iflc gia tang, thi liin chi sd tiing eao thu ba, 1 liin chi sd timg cao ihu tu vii<br /> Ciic doanh nghiep khd long xoay sd de ha 3 liin chi sd tiing cao thiir niim. lluing 1 1 cci 1 liin chi sd<br /> tiing cao thii' hai, 6 liin chi sd tiing cao thir ba. 2 liin chi<br /> gia biin. Vdi rad can ciia lai suat, thi gia sd tang cao thii tu. Thiing 5, ihang 8 vii thiing 10 thinh<br /> cua nhieu leai hang khd long giam sau thoang cung cd chi sd giii tiing cao.<br /> ngay ea nhflng thang cd ebi so' gia giam. Ciic niiin liim phiit cao thudng cd hien luong tiing giii<br /> Nhflng khi ehi so gha tang, ngan hang tu thiing 10. 11. 12 nam tiudc keo sang thiing 1. lining<br /> 2, thiing 3 niim sau vii li'ip lai viio ciic thiing cudi niim<br /> nhiinh ebdng tang lai s u i t . Khi mat bang (1986-1987-1988; 1989-1990-1991; 1998; 2004; 2007-<br /> giii mdi binh thanh. gi